Off the Charts: The Most Republican States Tend to Rely More on Government Jobs

Whatever the explanation, the states whose economies are most dependent on government employment and economic activity are also the states that are most likely to vote for Republicans, who generally campaign on promises to reduce the size of government.

Consider one measure, the proportion of civilian employees in each state with government jobs, whether federal, state or local. Nationally, the proportion last month was 16 percent, the lowest figure since 2001.

But the variance among the 50 states is large. At the top of the list, with one out of four workers employed by the government, is Wyoming. At the other extreme is Pennsylvania, with just one in eight.

Wyoming is among the most Republican states, and that is part of a pattern. Of the 15 states with the highest proportion of government employment, 10 voted for Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, in last year’s presidential election. (The District of Columbia, with more than 30 percent of the employees working for the government, is not included in the list because it is not a state, but it voted for President Obama.) Of the 15 states with the lowest level of government employment, only two — Indiana and Tennessee — voted for Mr. Romney.

If only the 25 states with the lowest level of government employment had voted in the election, Mr. Obama would have won the national popular vote by a landslide margin of 7.3 percentage points, much larger than his actual margin of 3.9 percentage points. But among the other 25 states, plus the District of Columbia, Mr. Romney had a 5.2 percentage point margin and would have easily won the election.

The charts show state rankings on that and three other measures. The 15 states with the largest government involvement are at the top and the 15 with the lowest government involvement are at the bottom.

States whose names are shaded voted for Mr. Romney and dominate all four of the top lists. States that voted for Mr. Obama are not shaded, and dominate the bottom lists. It should be noted that people may work in a different state from the one in which they live and vote. The ranking based on the proportion of government employees is shown in the left column of the chart. Next to it is a ranking based on the increase or decline in total government employment since January 2009, when the number of permanent government employees peaked. Coincidentally, that was also the month that Mr. Obama took office.

The other two are based on the state gross domestic product numbers calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department. One shows the proportion resulting from government activity, rather than private sector activity, in 2012, the most recent figure available. The next shows how much real government G.D.P. increased — or decreased — in the two years from 2010 to 2012.

A complete list of the figures for all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, can be found online at nytimes.com/businessday.

The state G.D.P. figures may well understate the importance of — and the decline in — government activity. That is because they are computed differently from the national G.D.P. number. The national number is based on spending, while the state numbers are based on profits and income of workers. As a result, if a government pays for the construction of something, whether a school or a fighter jet, that will show up as government activity in the national figure. But for the state figures, it will show up as private-sector activity because the work was done by employees of construction or aerospace companies.

By the state figures, real government G.D.P. across the country fell by 3.3 percent during the two years through 2012. The national G.D.P. figures, which reflect a substantial decline in local and state government investments in such things as schools and highways, showed a 4.2 percent decline, the largest for any two-year period since the early 1950s, when the government was demobilizing after the Korean War.

Whether measured by G.D.P. or jobs, the last several years have been marked by an extraordinary reduction in government in most parts of the country.

Floyd Norris comments on finance and the economy at nytimes.com/economix.

Primer on Big Data Privacy in United States, Europe

Lawyers and technologists face many challenges from the proliferation of Big Data, and one of the most pressing is data privacy. Governments and businesses collect massive amounts and many types of data in ways seemingly unimaginable just a few years ago.

Consumer Sentiment in the United States Slips

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment slipped to 82.1 in August from 85.1 in July.

The final result did manage to top an initial mid-month reading of 80.0 and beat economists' expectations for a final read of 80.5.

"Most of the late August gain was due to more favorable income expectations, with consumers expecting the largest income gains in nearly five years, although the median expected increase was just 0.9 percent, less than the expected rate of inflation," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

However, households with incomes below $75,000 grew more pessimistic about the future, and all households expected higher interest rates over the next year and slightly slower growth.

That helped drive the gauge of consumer expectations down to 73.7 from 76.5. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions slipped to 95.2 from 98.6 in July.

Long-term interest rates have risen by more than a full percentage point over the last three months on the view that the Federal Reserve will start scaling back as soon as next month its hefty support for the economy.

That has pushed up mortgage rates. Economists fear consumer sentiment could weaken if higher interest rates start to slow momentum in a housing revival that has been one of the brightest spots in the overall U.S. recovery

The one-year inflation expectation fell to 3 percent from 3.1 percent while the five-to-10-year inflation outlook edged up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

(Reporting By Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Third Circuit Hears Challenge to State's Funeral Laws

The two dozen funeral directors who allege that Pennsylvania's Funeral Director Law is largely unconstitutional won on all but one claim after five years of litigation in the district court.

Surpluses Help, but Fiscal Woes for States Go On

And some of the surpluses that are materializing, as welcome as they are, are not as robust as they appear at first glance — especially as bills come due for some of the costs that states put off during the long economic downturn.

When Texas lawmakers went into session in January, they were met with some good news: the state was projecting an $8.8 billion surplus when its two-year budget cycle ends in August. But it turned out that much of that extra money was already spoken for: more than half of it had to be used to pay Medicaid costs the state had delayed paying earlier.

And Texas, like many states, has not been fully funding its pensions. Last year the state contributed just 49.2 percent of what actuaries said was needed by the state workers’ pension fund. Eventually the remaining money, around $358 million, will still have to be put into the fund, along with the 8 percent investment return the fund is supposed to earn each year.

In Hawaii, Gov. Neil Abercrombie, a Democrat, recently opened his re-election campaign by noting that the $200 million deficit he inherited upon taking office has been transformed into a positive balance of $300 million. But Hawaii faces enormous looming bills: its pension system currently has less than 60 cents of every dollar it has promised retirees, and it is more than $13 billion short of what it will need to pay for the health coverage it has promised its retired workers.

And California, which faced a $26 billion deficit two years ago, expects a surplus of between $1.2 billion and $4.4 billion this year, thanks to a combination of tax increases, budget cuts and an improving economy. But it could be erased if the state were to adequately finance its teachers’ pension fund, which says it will need an additional $4.5 billion a year, much of it from the state, to pay the benefits it promised.

“The problems are still there,” said Richard Ravitch, a former lieutenant governor of New York who formed a State Budget Crisis Task Force last year to focus attention on the long-term problems facing states. “It’s retirement expenses, generally, and health care expenses — and they’re crowding out other things.”

Of course, surpluses are better than deficits. When the fiscal crisis hit states full force in 2009, 41 states were forced to make disruptive midyear budget cuts, according to a survey by the National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers. This year, only a handful did — and most states are expected to end the year with surpluses, or with money to replenish their depleted rainy-day funds.

But many challenges loom, as they have since before the recession. A 2007 study by the Government Accountability Office was titled “State and Local Governments: Persistent Fiscal Challenges Will Likely Emerge Within the Next Decade.” This spring the office warned that the continuing near-term and long-term state and local government challenges “add to the nation’s overall challenges,” noting that the problem was largely driven by rising health care costs.

And some states are still in considerable fiscal distress. Illinois, which still faces large backlogs of unpaid bills, the weakest pension system of any state and the lowest credit rating of any state, failed to approve an overhaul of its pension system this week. As time was running out in its state legislative session, some leaders in the Democrat-controlled Capitol were pleading for a last-ditch plan to address the state’s pension crisis. The system was in bad shape even before the financial crisis of 2008 struck, and now it requires an ever-bigger slice of the state budget every year to meet its promises.

Donald J. Boyd, a senior fellow at the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, in Albany, said states still face enormous costs to pay for the obligations they have made. “I know a lot of people are pinning their hopes and mantras on the idea that an improved stock market will bail pension funds out, but it will take so much more than we have seen — and the risk to governments, if it goes wrong, is frightening,” he said.

In some states the surpluses may reflect an improving economy, but in many they are the result of the tough steps taken during the downturn, which included making deep cuts to services; furloughing, laying off and reducing the benefits of workers; delaying repairs to roads and bridges; and raising taxes.

To some extent, said Scott D. Pattison, the executive director of the budget officers’ group, the current surpluses are a reflection of the way that the states’ annual revenue forecasts grew more conservative during the downturn and slow recovery. “It’s more a function of there being more money than they thought there would be,” he said, “and not a signal that their financial challenges are over.”

Now the surpluses have spurred debate in statehouses around the county, with some officials seeking to restore services and rehire workers, and others pushing new tax cuts. Governors from both parties, though, find themselves urging restraint as their states climb back from the recession.

Barry Anderson, the deputy director of the National Governors Association, used a homespun analogy for the situation that many states find themselves in. “I can see Mom and Dad at the kitchen table,” he said, “saying: ‘Wow, we did a little better than we anticipated here — but let’s not go out and blow it all, let’s set it aside. Because we know, not only do we need a new car, or to take care of the leaks in the basement, but Johnny and Joanie are going to need insurance coverage.’ ”

Rising health care costs continue to pose one of the biggest challenges to states, and the trend has many governors concerned.

Although the rate of Medicaid cost increases has slowed, Mr. Anderson said, those costs have continued to rise — and enrollments have risen as well, driving up expenses for many states. Medicaid was the biggest single component of total state spending this year, the most recent survey of states found: states were planning to spend 23.9 percent of their money on Medicaid — more than the 19.8 percent they were planning to spend on primary and secondary education, and more than what they planned to spend on higher education and transportation combined. Many states put off needed road maintenance during the downturn.

There are other threats on the horizon as well. Both Mr. Anderson and Mr. Pattison cautioned that some of the better-than-expected tax collections that many states experienced this year could be a one-time fluke: a higher-than-usual number of taxpayers apparently sold investments at the end of 2012 as Congress debated what to do about the so-called fiscal cliff, fearing the prospect of higher tax rates.

“We’re advising states to consider identifying money that is the result of one-time-only activity,” Mr. Pattison said, “and then try to avoid putting that into ongoing operating expenses.”

Monica Davey contributed reporting.

Penguin to Pay $75 Million in E-Book Settlement With States

That’s the thing with a tornado — even when you know it’s coming, you’re helpless, because you don’t know precisely where it will hit.

Room for Debate asks whether the White House crackdown is a defense of national security or an attack on the First Amendment.

Bucks Blog: The States With the Highest Car Insurance Rates

Associated Press Traffic headed out of New Orleans ahead of Hurricane Isaac last August.

If you want cheap car insurance rates, it’s best not to live in Louisiana. Or Michigan.

That’s according to a new analysis from Insure.com, an insurance rate comparison site.
The average annual premium in Louisiana is $2,700. Michigan is next with $2,500, followed by Georgia at $2,200. In the New York metropolitan region, Connecticut has the nation’s 11th highest average annual premium at $1,723, New Jersey is 12th at $1,697 and New York is 33rd at $1,369.

The report is based on additional analysis of data provided for Insure.com by Quadrant Information Services, which this year obtained rates for more than 750 models from six big insurers (Allstate, Farmers, Geico, Nationwide, Progressive and State Farm) in 10 ZIP codes per state. That analysis allowed Insure.com to report on the most and least expensive cars to insure, which Bucks reported on this year. Insure.com then averaged the rates for all vehicles in each state to create the state rankings. (The cars were all 2013 models.)

Rates are for a single, 40-year-old man with a clean driving record and good credit who commutes 12 miles to work daily. Policy limits were $100,000 for injury liability for one person, $300,000 for all injuries and $50,000 for property damage in an accident, and a $500 deductible on both collision and comprehensive coverage. The rate includes uninsured motorist coverage.

Ultimately, your own rates will vary based on your driving record, the type of car you drive and other factors, including those that have little to do with your driving history. But the comparative state rankings give an idea of how policies at the state level can affect rates over all, said Amy Danise, Insure.com’s editorial director.

In Louisiana, several factors help to drive up rates, she said. For instance, drivers injured in accidents there tend to file more bodily injury claims than do those in other states. Medical costs have been increasing, so insurers have to pay more for those claims. The state also has significant claims filed under “comprehensive” coverage, which covers damage from natural disasters, like hurricanes.

Michigan, meanwhile, is an “oddball” state when it comes to car insurance, she said, in that auto policies are required to offer unlimited medical coverage for injuries sustained in an accident. Insurers pay the first $500,000 in medical claims, and the Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association pays the rest. All policyholders pay a fee for the association. The fee is $175 per car.

“All of these costs get passed on, in one way or another,” Ms. Danise said.

Meanwhile, less urban states may benefit from overall lower rates because of less traffic congestion and lower accident rates. Maine ranks as the cheapest state, with an average premium of just over $900, followed closely by Iowa at about $1,000. “You don’t have all these cars next to each other crashing into each other,” she said.

So what if you don’t live in a state with lower premiums? You can strive to keep your own driving record as clean as possible, avoiding tickets and accidents that can raise your rates. And you can shop around. Quotes for the same driver can differ by company, she said. You can also choose a car that’s less expensive to insure. In Louisiana, for instance, the cheapest choice would be a Jeep Patriot Sport , while the most expensive would be a Mercedes-Benz S65 AMG sedan.

Do you live in a high-premium state? Do you take any special steps to help keep your premium affordable?

Gulf Coast States Jockey Over Settlement on Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

A lawyer briefed on those talks said that the Justice Department and the five states — Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas — had reportedly prepared an offer to resolve the two biggest issues central to a series of trials against BP, the first of which starts Monday.

One of those issues is the fines that the company would pay for violations of the Clean Water Act related to the four million gallons of oil spilled after the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, which BP had leased from Transocean. The other point of dispute is how much the company will have to pay in penalties under a different environmental statute for damage caused by the oil to the area: beaches, marshes, wildlife and fisheries.

The Wall Street Journal reported late Friday that federal and state officials were preparing a $16 billion settlement offer that would cover both the Clean Water Act fines and environmental penalties related to the spill. “The ball is on BP’s side of the table,” said the lawyer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Justice Department officials and state officials could not be reached Saturday to comment on any possible offer. A spokesman for BP, Geoff Morrell, said, “BP doesn’t talk about possible offers or negotiations, but I can tell you we are ready for trial and looking forward to the opportunity to present our case starting Monday.”

The lawyer briefed on the talks said that one problem with the current proposal was that it did not cover economic damages claimed by the states related to the spill. Such claims could still leave BP on the hook for billions more, in addition to the environmental damages.

The late negotiations among federal and state officials to find common ground represents progress, even if limited, in the search for a settlement. The five states have had sharp disagreements over how much BP should pay and how billions of dollars in potential settlement funds should be divided.

For example, only Louisiana and Alabama, are participating in the trial starting on Monday, though Florida, Mississippi and Texas could be part of any settlement. Officials in Louisiana believe their state deserves the bulk of any settlement since its coastal waters, fisheries and businesses suffered the most. Florida and other states that escaped serious coastal damage instead want money for economic losses that they sustained.

“There are a lot of moving parts,” said Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama. “Personalities aside, the issues are so complex.” Another lawyer briefed on the talks said he believed any proposal involving Louisiana would be significant because its participation would be critical to any settlement.

Also, billions of dollars could be assessed against BP in several ways, either through fines, or through penalties to redress environmental damage and payments to cover economic losses. And each of those methods represents a different set of stakes and consequences for each of the states and for BP.

For instance, BP would prefer to limit the fines and make more payments through environmental damage penalties, because those penalties can be written off as tax deductions while fines cannot. But the states have more flexibility in spending money derived from fines.

To date, BP has agreed to pay an estimated $30 billion in fines, settlement payments and cleanup costs related to the Deepwater Horizon explosion, which killed 11 workers aboard the rig. And so far, company officials have said they have no intention of acceding to demands from the states for huge economic damages.

Still, the stakes for BP in the trial are high. If the company is found in this first phase of the trial to have acted with gross negligence, it could face up to $17.5 billion in penalties, much of that in fines that would hit the bottom line hardest because they do not qualify as tax deductions.

The lack of a unified strategy to date among the states has also posed another problem for BP; companies are less likely to settle a major lawsuit if they know yet another one is waiting.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 23, 2013

An earlier version of this article misinterpreted a statement by Geoff Morrell, a BP spokesman, about the state of settlement talks between BP and government officials. He said that the chances of a settlement before the trial begins on Monday were far-fetched; he was not referring to a possible $16 billion offer by government officials as reported by The Wall Street Journal.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

Gulf Coast States at Odds on Penalties for Oil Spill

But the negotiations over those penalties — including which states get the money, how quickly, and what it can be used for — could be more contentious than the talks that led to the criminal settlement.

Officials with the Justice Department, who are leading the discussions, are not simply representing the federal government, but a number of other governments, including those of the five gulf states. And not only do some states have a different vision of a just settlement than federal officials do, they also disagree among one another. In some cases, leaders within a single state cannot agree on the best course of action.

All those differences have complicated progress toward a civil settlement, according to several people with knowledge of the discussions. On Thursday, both BP and the Justice Department said they intended to take the matter to trial in late February.

“Greed has always tripped up individuals and companies and states,” said Representative Jo Bonner, a Republican whose district includes the Alabama coastline. “We should be unified in holding the Department of Justice’s feet to the fire, just like they said they were holding BP’s feet to the fire.”

Under the criminal settlement, $2.4 billion paid by BP will go to environmental restoration, overseen by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, a nonprofit organization created by Congress. Projects in Louisiana will get half the money, and the rest will be split among the other gulf states — Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.

There are two significant varieties of civil remedies to come from the spill: penalties under the Clean Water Act and claims under the Natural Resources Damage Assessment. A settlement would most likely include some payments through both mechanisms, though the difficult question is how much would be paid out under which one. And there is intense disagreement over which is preferable.

Under the Natural Resources Damage Assessment process, which arose out of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, state and federal agencies total the environmental harm caused by the spill and send the responsible party a bill. All the money is administered by federal agencies and must be spent on environmental recovery. And the penalties, which could run in the tens of billions of dollars in the BP case, are tax-deductible for the polluter.

Payments under this process are directly tied to environmental damages, so a related BP settlement would benefit Louisiana the most, since that state experienced and continues to experience the worst of the spill.

For this reason, Garret Graves, the chief coastal adviser to Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, said that pathway could be the most helpful for the coast. “Under N.R.D.A., 100 percent of the money goes to the gulf for recovery,” he said.

The drawback is that the assessment can take years, and must be arrived at through findings by different scientists, which can vary widely.

The Clean Water Act calls for a penalty based on the number of barrels spilled, with much higher damages to be awarded if the polluter is found to have been grossly negligent in causing the spill. In the past, the money from these penalties, which in the BP case could add up to $21 billion, would go to the United States Treasury.

But in June, Congress passed a law, called the Restore Act, which directed that four-fifths of the penalty money in the BP spill be divided up among the gulf states, to be spent mostly outside federal control.

The passage of the Restore Act required quite a bit of horse trading, particularly in a Congress not known for demonstrations of bipartisanship.

Senator Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana Democrat who was lead sponsor of the act, maintained that her state had felt the brunt of the spill, but she arrived at a compromise with other gulf state lawmakers. Of the money that goes to the gulf states, 35 percent would be divided evenly among them. About 30 percent of the funds would be divided based on the extent of damage, and another 30 percent would go to creating and carrying out a comprehensive master plan covering the entire Gulf Coast.

John Schwartz contributed reporting from New York.

State's Ad Campaign For Voter ID Law Allowed to Proceed

The state's advertising campaign on the voter ID law can continue, Commonwealth Court Judge Robert Simpson decided less than a week before Election Day.

S&P revises Penn State's outlook over lawsuits

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) - The ratings agency Standard & Poor's has revised Penn State University's outlook to negative from stable, citing litigation against the school over the Jerry Sandusky child molestation scandal, but affirmed its long-term bond rating.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

The Practical Effect of the Arizona v. United States Decision

The Supreme Court?s recent decision on Arizona?s immigration law, SB 1070, otherwise known as the ?Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act,? has done little to quell the attention and conversation that has been prevalent over the past two years since the law was passed. Critics of the legislation say it encourages racial profiling, while supporters say it is intended to reduce the number of illegal aliens in the state.

United States Economy Still Weak, but More Feel Secure

Despite months of disappointing-to-dismal economic reports — capped by a Commerce Department release Thursday showing the economy had expanded at an annual pace of just 1.3 percent in the second quarter, barely above stall speed — a closely watched measure of consumer confidence surged to its highest level since February.

Economic experts pointed to several trends to explain how Americans were feeling better about the economy even though growth in jobs and the overall economy had weakened. First, the election is having a strong effect on economic perceptions. Second, though the recovery is weak, it has persisted, with employment and wages rising and some households feeling more secure.

Though the unemployment rate has been stuck between 8.1 and 8.3 percent all year, employers have continued to add workers to their payrolls. Wages and consumer spending have strengthened.

The housing sector’s nascent recovery foretells rising employment in the construction, real estate and mortgage finance sectors, as well as rising household wealth.

“There is a recovery. There are jobs. There is more income. There is some improvement,” said Lawrence Mishel, a labor market expert at and president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute. “But the improvement is obviously disappointing,” he added, a sentiment that many economists echoed.

Moreover, Labor Department data released on Thursday suggested that job growth in the 12 months through March 2012 might have been significantly stronger than government economists first expected.

In a standard revision of its jobs numbers, the department said that the economy added nearly 400,000 more jobs during that period than originally thought.

“The pattern of revisions suggest that the recession that began at the end of 2007 was deeper than initially reported, and the jobs recovery over the last 2.5 years has been a bit stronger than initially reported, although much work remains to be done to return to full employment,” Alan B. Krueger, the head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers said in a statement.

In the first quarter of the year, the economy added, on average, 134,000 jobs a month. Over the last three months, the rate of job growth has fallen to 79,000 a month. Similarly, economic growth was 2 percent in the first quarter before dropping to 1.3 percent in the second, largely because of the effects of the nation’s worst drought in 50 years.

According to Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely respected forecasting firm, growth is tracking at 1.7 percent for the third quarter. Moreover, rising gas and food prices have cut into workers’ wallets.

The economic data has grown so dismal that Federal Reserve this month announced a major new bond-buying effort to resuscitate the recovery once more. “The Federal Reserve is basically saying that we don’t have a recovery,” said Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, Mitt Romney’s running mate. “Obamanomics didn’t work.”

Earlier this year, the conventional wisdom held that numbers like these should have meant trouble for the Obama campaign. Yet, even as job growth has fallen far below 100,000 a month, the American people appear to be growing more confident in both the economy and the president.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence surged to a seven-month high, trouncing economists’ expectations. Respondents in particular had a more favorable view of the job market going forward — with more consumers expecting employers to add positions in the coming months.

The recovery seems to have jelled with voters, too. A recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that 40 percent of respondents think the country is on the right track, up from 23 percent a year ago. Moreover, 31 percent of respondents described the economy as very or fairly good, up from 14 percent a year ago.

Just as opinions about the economy have driven opinions about the campaign, it seems that opinions about the campaign are driving opinions about the economy.

Democrats have become much more optimistic, pulling the national numbers up with them. A new Pew poll, for instance, shows that just 15 percent of Democrats say that recent economic news is mostly bad, while 60 percent of Republicans say the same. A year ago, they held similar opinions.

“Right now, politics is playing an inordinately large role in the behavioral economic data,” wrote Lydia Saad and Dennis Jacobe, of Gallup, in an analysis of the surge in consumer confidence. “This suggests that the period between now and the election is a particularly hazardous time to apply traditional behavioral economic and political interpretations to key economic measures.”

Economists and political experts described the recovery as a “Rorschach test,” with both sides’ arguments compelling to voters.

“It’s a challenging messaging environment,” said Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “President Obama is in this strange situation of wanting to go out there and own this growth when people are saying, ‘That’s nothing to be proud of!’ ”

“If it were just the economy, the president would be in a lot of trouble based on how voters have reacted to numbers like the ones we’re seeing now,” said Nigel Gault, the chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm.

Mr. Gault said he believed that Mr. Obama’s significantly higher likability and favorability numbers — and the Romney campaign’s recent decision to talk about other things besides the economy — helped to explain Mr. Obama’s lead in the polls.

Professor Vavreck, though, said that the fact that the economy was growing gave Mr. Obama a powerful leg up, even given voters’ queasiness about the economy.

“Incumbents in growing economies, even slow ones, are hard to beat,” she said.

Others noted that the time for Mr. Romney to make his case and have it sink in had grown short.

“The economy’s not going to change much between now and the election,” said Mr. Gault of IHS Global Insight. “The economy is what it is. And if the economy hasn’t tilted the race in favor of Romney by now, you wonder whether it ever will.”