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Reporting was contributed by Nicola Clark and David Jolly from Paris, Jack Ewing from Frankfurt, Julia Werdigier from London, Gaia Piangiani from Rome, Elisabetta Povoledo from Milan and Raphael Minder from Madrid.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: May 9, 2013
An article on Wednesday about hospitals’ widely varying billings for the same procedures misstated part of the name of the federal agency that released the billing data. It is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (not the Center).
Bill Carter contributed reporting.
Larry Downing/ReutersJamie Dimon, the chief of JPMorgan Chase, at a Senate panel last year.JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, reported a 33 percent rise in first-quarter earnings on Friday, bolstered by gains in the investment banking business and a surge in mortgage lending.
“All our businesses had strong performance, and our client franchises did exceptionally well,” Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, said in a statement.
As the economy recovers slowly, demand for loans remained stagnant. JPMorgan said total loans at the bank fell 1 percent. Yet gains from investment banking allowed JPMorgan to record 12 consecutive quarters of profit.
Within the investment banking unit, assets grew by 8 percent to $19.3 trillion for the first quarter. Fees rose 4 percent, to $1.4 billion.
The net earnings of $6.5 billion, or $1.59 a share, exceeded Wall Street analysts’ expectations of $5.41 billion, or $1.40 a share. Revenue was $25.8 billion, compared with $26.8 billion in the same period a year earlier.
The report kicked off the bank earnings season. As the nation’s largest bank by assets, JPMorgan is often looked at as a bellwether.
A bright spot for JPMorgan’s earnings was mortgage lending, fueled in part by federal programs that have helped damp interest rates. Those low rates have prompted homeowners to refinance. In total, the mortgage banking group posted a profit of $673 million for the first quarter, down 31 percent from a year earlier.
Mortgage originations rose 37 percent in the quarter, to $52.7 billion. Still, application volumes were down, 1 percent from a year earlier, settling in at $60.5 billion. Appetite for loans was dampened, the bank said, by an uptick in interest rates earlier this year.
“We are seeing positive signs that the economy is healthy and getting stronger,” Mr. Dimon said. “Housing prices continued to improve, and new home purchases are also starting to come back.
The bank’s credit card business also improved, with sales volume rising to $94.7 billion, an increase of 9 percent from the same quarter a year earlier, but down 7 percent from last quarter. Auto lending also grew by 12 percent from a year earlier to $6.5 billion.
The results point to some of the larger challenges facing the nation’s biggest banks. As low interest rates continue to undercut profits, banks like JPMorgan are under pressure to cut expenses.
JPMorgan said on Friday that its total head count continued to fall, reaching 255,898. Non-interest expenses plummeted by 16 percent to $15.42 billion from a year earlier.
The bank has pinned some of its hopes for future profitability on its asset management business, as profits from riskier businesses like trading get undercut by a spate of new regulation. The asset management business reported net income of $487 million for the quarter, up 26 percent from a year earlier.
JPMorgan continued to gain business in private banking, accumulating $2.2 trillion in assets under management, up 8 percent from a year earlier.
Some of the strength in earnings, however, were helped by JPMorgan’s decision to reduce reserves for mortgages and credit-card loans. By moving money from the reserves, which cushion the bank against potential loses, the bank got a net 18 cent gain a share.
Addressing questions on Friday about whether the earnings are deceptively strong, Mr. Dimon said in a conference call that even after the reserve reductions, “we had really good numbers everywhere.”
JPMorgan also disclosed on Friday that it had changed a crucial measure that had helped obscure the risk of a series of complex wagers on credit derivatives. Those bets, made by the bank’s chief investment office, ultimately led to more than $6 billion in losses, claimed the jobs of top bank executives and forced Mr. Dimon to account for the losses before Congress.
The measure, called value at risk, or VAR, is used to estimate the losses associated with trading positions. JPMorgan said in a supplemental filing Friday that it had altered the value at risk metric for the corporate and investment bank to “achieve consistency with like products.”
As the traders in London assembled increasingly complex bets that ultimately led to the trading losses, JPMorgan changed how it measured risk in January 2012. That tweak allowed the traders in the chief investment office, to continue building the large wagers, according to Congressional investigators.
JPMorgan has changed its VAR model at least four times since January 2012. Explaining one such change, Mr. Dimon told the Senate Banking Committee in June that the bank had decided the model wasn’t effectively gauging risk and changed it in May. But that change alone meant that risk on the trades was underestimated by at least half.
Still, another quarter of robust earnings give the bank another chance to move beyond that multibillion-dollar trading loss.
Since announcing the trading loss last May, JPMorgan and its influential chairman, Mr. Dimon, have struggled to reassure skittish investors and defray a series of federal investigations related to the bungled wagers on complex-credit derivatives. Mr. Dimon has testified before Congress, vastly reshuffled its executive ranks and fortified risk controls. In January, JPMorgan’s board slashed Mr. Dimon’s compensation by 50 percent to $11.5 million.
More recently, Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, grilled current and former senior executives at the bank about lax oversight policies and gulfs in risk management. The Congressional hearing, which lasted for nearly four hours, renewed pressure on Mr. Dimon and the bank. At times, senior executives floundered as they tried to combat lawmakers’ accusations that the officials misled investors and regulators about the soured bet. The hearing came just a day after a scathing 300-page report into the losses.
Mr. Dimon has struck a more contrite tone, seemingly chastened by the continued fallout from the trading losses. In his annual letter to shareholders, released on Wednesday, Mr. Dimon repeatedly apologized for the losses. He described the losses as the “the stupidest and most embarrassing situation I have ever been a part of,” vowing to continue to bolster risk controls and rout out problems.
Rather than taking a combative tone toward regulations that rein in Wall Street, Mr. Dimon expressed regret for how the trading losses “let our regulators down.”
In his letter, Mr. Dimon also warned shareholders that the bank would continue to face regulatory challenges in the “coming months.” JPMorgan, Mr. Dimon said, will deploy resources to improve firmwide controls on risk and compliance. “We are reprioritizing our major projects and initiatives,” he said.
The earnings on Friday come just a month before JPMorgan’s annual shareholder meeting, where the results of a crucial vote will be announced. Shareholders will decide whether to strip Mr. Dimon of his chairman title, a role he has held since 2006. Ahead of the nonbinding vote, JPMorgan has been working behind the scenes to make their case to shareholders that Mr. Dimon should keep the dual roles.
Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesA Dell computer for sale at an Electric Avenue store in Miami.Though the race for Dell Inc. has narrowed to three contestants, many more arose over a month ago.
Advisers to Dell directors spoke to 71 potential bidders during a 45-day period aimed at finding alternatives to a $24.4 billion offer by Michael S. Dell and the investment firm Silver Lake, according to a securities filing by the company on Friday.
The long-awaited proxy filing includes a lengthy history of the merger, detailing in 26 pages the negotiations that led to the Dell transaction. In particular, it shines a light on the 45-day “go shop” period, which ended last week with preliminary bids by the Blackstone Group and the billionaire Carl C. Icahn.
Dell is expected to point to the efforts recounted in the filing as proof that its board fought hard to find the best possible outcome for shareholders, as several investors continue to argue that the existing $13.65-a-share bid by Mr. Dell and Silver Lake is too low.
According to the filing, bankers at Evercore Partners reached out to strategic and financial buyers starting soon after the deal with Mr. Dell was signed on Feb. 5. Several suitors were rejected because they were interested in only a piece of Dell’s businesses.
On Feb. 6, Blackstone contacted Evercore, saying it wanted to participate in the go-shop process. The private equity giant had already expressed interest the previous month in potentially bidding for Dell.
A month later, Blackstone and potential partners met with Mr. Dell to further discuss a bid.
Other private equity shops emerged as well. The filing refers to a “Sponsor B” that held discussions with Dell directors late last year and was willing to take another look despite declining to bid the first time. People briefed on the matter identified that firm as TPG Capital.
Ultimately, TPG decided again not to participate in any bids.
A corporate bidder, identified as “Strategic Party A,” contacted Evercore on Feb. 8 to say it was interested in information about Dell’s financial services arm. That company — which people briefed on the matter said was General Electric’s GE Capital — later expressed interest in working with whatever group Blackstone convened to make a bid.
At least three other strategic buyers sought access to Dell’s books. Most were denied because they appeared interested only in bidding for part of the company.
Mr. Icahn first contacted Evercore on Feb. 26 about signing a confidentiality agreement. More than a week later, the billionaire wrote to the special committee, disclosing that he owned a “substantial” stake in Dell and warning that he would fight the proposed takeover by Mr. Dell.
By the go-shop deadline of March 22, Evercore bankers had received three expressions of interest. One was from GE Capital, which proposed to buy Dell Financial Services only if combined with any takeover bid, including Mr. Dell’s.
Blackstone also submitted an offer, now known to be over $14.25 a share, that would leave an unspecified portion of Dell public to let investors continue to own a piece of the company if they so wished. The firm disclosed that it was working with Francisco Partners and Insight Venture Partners.
In a twist, however, Blackstone demanded that the Dell special committee reimburse the costs of assembling that rival bid, up to $25 million. That request was granted on Monday.
Mr. Icahn offered to buy about 58.1 percent of the company for about $15.6 billion, or $15 a share. His proposal envisioned several major shareholders, including Southeastern Asset Management and T. Rowe Price, contributing their stakes as well.
Privately, some Dell advisers considered Mr. Icahn’s proposal simply a placeholder to keep negotiating with the special committee, according to people briefed on the matter. He has said he is reviewing Blackstone’s offer as well, leaving the door open to joining that consortium.
Erik S. Lesser/European Pressphoto Agency Google’s Flu Predictor overestimated how many people had the flu this flu season.Several years ago, Google, aware of how many of us were sneezing and coughing, created a fancy equation on its Web site to figure out just how many people had influenza. The math works like this: people’s location + flu-related search queries on Google + some really smart algorithms = the number of people with the flu in the United States.
So how did the algorithms fare this wretched winter? According to Google Flu Trends, at the flu season’s peak in mid-January, nearly 11 percent of the United States population had influenza.
Yikes! Take vitamins. Don’t leave the house. Wash your hands. Wash them again!
But wait. According to an article in the science journal Nature, Google’s disease-hunting algorithms were wrong: their results were double the actual estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which put the coughing and sniffling peak at 6 percent of the population.
Kelly Mason, a public affairs spokeswoman for Google, said the company’s Flu Trends site was meant to be only one source in addition to the C.D.C. and other flu surveillance methods. “We review and potentially update our model each season,” she said.
Scientists have a theory about what went wrong, as well.
“Several researchers suggest that the problems may be due to widespread media coverage of this year’s severe U.S. flu season,” Declan Butler wrote in Nature. Then add social media, which helped news of the flu spread quicker than the virus itself.
In other words, Google’s algorithm was looking only at the numbers, not at the context of the search results.
In today’s digitally connected world, data is everywhere: in our phones, search queries, friendships, dating profiles, cars, food, reading habits. Almost everything we touch is part of a larger data set. But the people and companies that interpret the data may fail to apply background and outside conditions to the numbers they capture.
“Data inherently has all of the foibles of being human,” said Mark Hansen, director of the David and Helen Gurley Brown Institute for Media Innovation at Columbia University. “Data is not a magic force in society; it’s an extension of us.”
Society has encountered similar situations for centuries. In the 1600s, Dr. Hansen said, an early census was recorded in England as the Great Plague of London killed tens of thousands of Britons. To calculate the spread of the disease, officials started recording every christening and death in the city. And although this helped quantify the mortality rate, it also created other problems. There was now an astounding collection of statistical information for scientists to review and understand, but it took time to develop systems that could accurately assess the information.
Now, as we enter a world of big data, we have to learn how to apply context to these numbers.
Dr. Hansen said the problem of data without context could be summed up in a quote from the playwright Eugène Ionesco: “Of course, not everything is unsayable in words, only the living truth.”
I experienced this firsthand in the spring of 2010, when I was an adjunct professor at New York University teaching graduate students in the Interactive Telecommunications Program.
I created a class called “Telling Stories With Data, Sensors and Humans,” with the goal of determining whether sensors and data could become reporters and collect information. Students built little electronic contraptions with $30 computers called Arduinos, and attached several sensors, including ones that could detect light, noise and movement.
We wondered if we could use these sensors to determine whether students used the elevators more than the stairs, and whether that changed throughout the day. (Esoteric, sure, but a perfect example of a computer sitting there taking notes, rather than a human.)
We set up the sensors in some elevators and stairwells at N.Y.U. and waited. To our delighted surprise, the data we collected told a story, and it seemed that our experiment had worked.
As I left campus that evening, one of the N.Y.U. security guards who had seen students setting up the computers in the elevators asked how our experiment had gone. I explained that we had found that students seemed to use the elevators in the morning, perhaps because they were tired from staying up late, and switch to the stairs at night, when they became energized.
“Oh, no, they don’t,” the security guard told me, laughing as he assured me that lazy college students used the elevators whenever possible. “One of the elevators broke down a few evenings last week, so they had no choice but to use the stairs.”
E-mail: bilton@nytimes.com
Potential investors got a glimpse of the financial challenges that Rupert Murdoch’s soon-to-be spun-off publishing company could face. In a regulatory filing, News Corporation said its publishing businesses lost $2.1 billion in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The disclosure was filed to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, as the media conglomerate prepares to split its publishing assets from its more lucrative entertainment segments. The new, stand-alone company will retain the name News Corporation and include newspapers like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and The Times of London; the HarperCollins book publisher; and a handful of fast-growing Australian pay-television assets.
The entertainment company, which will be called the Fox Group, will include 20th Century Fox studios, Fox Broadcasting and cable channels like Fox News and FX. That company has annual revenue of more than $23 billion.
The losses in the publishing business came largely from $2.8 billion in impairment and restructuring charges, mostly related to the closure of the tabloid News of the World in Britain, which was shut in July 2011 after revelations of widespread phone-hacking. Revenue at the publishing business fell to $8.65 billion in fiscal year 2012, from $9.1 billion a year earlier.
The S.E.C. Form 10 filing moves the company closer toward the split and gives shareholders a better idea of what the stand-alone publishing company, called the “New News Corporation” in the report, will look like financially when the spinoff is completed in mid-2013.
The company warned investors that “newspaper and advertising circulation revenues have been declining, reflecting general trends in the newspaper industry.” In addition to industrywide headwinds, the company said illegal activity at its British newspapers “could damage the New News Corporation’s reputation and might impair its ability to conduct its business.”
As additional civil lawsuits related to phone hacking are filed in Britain, News Corporation said it “is not able to predict the ultimate outcome or cost associated with these investigations.”
The fallout from the phone-hacking scandal, and an investor base that increasingly expressed disapproval of the newspaper business, prompted Mr. Murdoch to announce the split of his $60 billion media conglomerate in June.
“The filing of the Form 10 is another important step forward in the evolution of our company and in the establishment of two independent global leaders in Fox Group and the new News Corporation,” said Mr. Murdoch, who serves as chairman and chief executive of the combined News Corporation.
Earlier this month Mr. Murdoch said Robert Thomson, a confidant and the former managing editor at The Wall Street Journal, would serve as chief executive of the new News Corporation. Mr. Murdoch will continue to serve as chairman of both companies and chief executive of the Fox Group.
In his new role Mr. Thomson, 51, will have a base salary of $2 million with a performance-based $2 million bonus, according to the filing.
In addition to hundreds of newspapers on several continents, the publishing company will also include Australia’s RealEstate.com.au; Fox Sports in Australia; 50 percent of Foxtel, the No. 1 pay-TV provider in Australia; and 44 percent of Sky Network Television in New Zealand. Analysts expect those businesses to drive profits and support some of the weaker newspapers.
Fox Sports had revenue of $3.6 billion and Foxtel of $2.5 billion in 2012. Those results were not included in the publishing company’s 2012 earnings, but will contribute to the new company’s bottom line.
Eric Risberg/Associated Press Thorsten Heins, the president and chief executive of RIM, did not offer a specific date for the coming line of BlackBerry 10 phones.OTTAWA — Research in Motion said on Tuesday that its coming line of BlackBerry 10 phones would include the company’s popular BlackBerry Messenger service, a feature still absent on its tablet computers.
But during his presentation to software developers in San Jose, Calf., Thorsten Heins, the president and chief executive of RIM, still did not offer a specific date for what he called “our most important launch ever.” Mr. Heins said, however, that the new phones, which have been delayed twice, will be on sale at some point early next year.
At the meeting, the company displayed the second version of a prototype BlackBerry 10 phone. Outwardly, it appeared little different from a prototype given to developers in May. But the software on the phone demonstrated on Thursday looked much more refined and advanced. In addition to BlackBerry Messenger, it included apps for Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and Foursquare, which were integrated with the phone’s calendar, datebook and e-mail apps.
RIM also showed how corporations and governments would be able to segregate their data and app from users’ personal selections and information.
The software linking all the features, Mr. Heins said, will allow users to perform a variety of tasks from a single screen without switching applications.
Although creating new phones and a new operating system has clearly been a struggle for the company, Mr. Heins made no effort to temper expectations.
“We are convinced that the BlackBerry 10 platform will shape the next 10 years as profoundly and significantly as BlackBerry shaped the last 10 years,” he said. Recent demonstrations of the prototype to people at telephone companies and elsewhere, he said, have made “believers out of those who had previously written BlackBerry off.”
Still, the success of the new phones remains to be seen. On Thursday, Mr. Heins will have to face a much less cheery group, RIM’s investors, when he announces the company’s second-quarter results. A Bloomberg survey of 35 analysts found that they expected the company to report that earnings fell 41 percent from the same period last year.
Leading up to Tuesday, some analysts speculated that the total number of BlackBerry users had not grown or had even declined during the quarter, which would have been a first for the company. But Mr. Heins said RIM had counted 80 million BlackBerry users during the quarter, up from 78 million the last time the company reported.