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DealBook: U.S. Investigates Currency Trades by Major Banks

Major Surge Is Unlikely for Prices of U.S. Gas

But energy experts say that a major jump is unlikely for the 29.2 million Americans whom AAA expects to travel 50 miles or more on the road this weekend — up from 28 million last year — despite the summer of unrest across the Middle East and North Africa.

In fact, Americans will pay considerably less for gasoline than they did last Labor Day weekend, when refinery shutdowns and Hurricane Isaac, which hit the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, heightened fears of gasoline shortages.

“Gasoline prices are going to be surprisingly temperate,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at GasBuddy.com. “In California drivers will be spending 30 to 40 cents less than last Labor Day weekend for a gallon of regular and much of the rest of the country will be between 5 and 15 cents lower than last year.”

According to the AAA daily fuel gauge report, the national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline on Friday was just over $3.58, still only 5 cents higher than a week ago and 4 cents cheaper than a month ago. Gasoline prices are just beginning to catch up with the rise in global crude oil prices, which had climbed roughly $6 a barrel in just a few days as the United States and allies prepared to attack Syria in retaliation for what they suspect was a government chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilians.

Oil prices retreated by about $2 a barrel on Thursday and slumped a bit more on Friday. Experts said prices could easily jump back up after an expected attack on Syria.

Oil experts say gasoline prices could rise as much as 10 cents a gallon over the next week or two, as higher oil prices gradually push up wholesale and retail prices. But few expect a big, lasting jump unless there is a major expansion of conflict across the Middle East that seriously threatens oil production and shipments.

The Energy Information Administration projects that the national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline will be $3.59 during the third quarter and $3.52 for the entire year, 11 cents below the average 2012 price. It expects an even lower 2014 annual price of $3.37 a gallon.

“Gas prices are probably going to be spiking over the next few days,” said Michael Green, a spokesman for AAA. But he added: “It’s not horrendous. We’re looking at the lowest Labor Day gas prices since 2010.”

One reason, according to a report by the Energy Department on Wednesday, is a surprise weekly jump of three million barrels in national oil inventories. The report also showed a much lower-than-expected drop in inventories of gasoline, which remained particularly well supplied on the heavily populated East Coast. Several East Coast refineries that curtailed operations last week for unplanned maintenance are expected to be back up in the next few days, which should further increase supplies.

Summer driving normally tapers off after the Labor Day weekend, and that should help keep a lid on prices. Demand for gasoline should drop by about 15 million gallons a day in September from August levels, according to government statistics.

Most important, the country is better prepared for any shocks if the instability in the Middle East and North Africa escalates much further. United States gasoline inventories are up nearly 10 percent from a year ago, while demand is up by only about 1 percent.

Mostly because of a frenzy of shale drilling and expansion of oil sands production, the United States and Canada are producing two million barrels of oil a day more than when the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa broke out two years ago. That, along with the decline in consumption since 2007, has meant that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and other inventories now have the capacity to replace about nine months of imports, about 40 percent more than only five years ago.

July Rally Seems to Wane as Shares Slip, Pending Major Economic Reports

The July rally in the stock market appears to be fading.

Stocks edged lower on Monday as investors awaited major economic news this week. Several big-name mergers were not enough to push the main market indexes higher.

The government will report its first estimate of economic growth for the second quarter on Wednesday, and it will release its employment report for July on Friday.

The Federal Reserve may give some indication about the future of its economic stimulus program on Wednesday after the central bank’s two-day policy meeting. The Fed’s stimulus has been a major factor supporting a four-year rally in stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dropped 6.32 points, or 0.4 percent, to close at 1,685.33.

Seven of the 10 sectors in the S.& P. 500 fell. The declines were led by energy companies and banks.

The S.& P. 500 is still up 4.9 percent in July, and it appears to be on track to have its best month since January. The index reached a nominal closing high on July 22, after Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, assured investors that the central bank would not cut its stimulus before the economy was ready. The Fed is buying $85 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to help keep interest rates low and encourage borrowing and hiring.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 36.86 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,521.97. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 14.02 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,599.14.

Stocks may struggle to add to their gains, given that expectations for the economy remain modest, said Scott Wren, a senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors.

Economists estimate that the economy grew at an annual rate of just less than 1 percent in the second quarter. That would be about half the 1.8 percent annual growth rate in the first quarter.

“I don’t think you’re going to see the market sustain much higher levels than this,” Mr. Wren said. “All this data is going to show that we are slowly improving, but it’s a slow process and there’s not much to get excited about.”

Three corporate deals did not excite the broader stock market.

The luxury retailer Saks rose 64 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $15.95 after the Canadian retailer Hudson’s Bay, the parent company of Lord & Taylor, agreed to buy it for $2.4 billion, or $16 a share.

The Interpublic Group, a big advertising company, jumped 74 cents, or 4.7 percent, to $16.61 after the Omnicom Group agreed to combine with Publicis Groupe of France to create the world’s largest advertising company. Interpublic’s stock gained even after the company’s chief executive, Michael Roth, said that he saw no need for a major merger to keep the company moving forward.

Omnicom shares climbed as high as $70.50 in early trading, but ended the day down 36 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $64.75.

Perrigo stock fell $9.06, or 6.75 percent, to $125.17 after the drug maker agreed to buy the Irish biotechnology company Elan in a deal valued at $8.6 billion.

The deals should encourage more merger activity, said Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management. “Companies are struggling to grow organically,” he said. “So, how do they grow? They grow by buying other businesses.”

In government bond trading, the price of the 10-year Treasury note fell 9/32, to 92 23/32, while its yield rose to 2.60 percent, from 2.56 percent late Friday. The 10-year note’s yield is up nearly 1 percentage point since the start of May, when it hit 1.62 percent, its low point of the year.

Alcatel-Lucent Names Chief to Lead a Major Downsizing

BERLIN — Alcatel-Lucent, the struggling French telecommunications equipment maker, on Friday hired a former Vodafone and France Télécom executive, Michel Combes, to lead the company through what might be a major downsizing.

Mr. Combes, 51, will take over for Ben Verwaayen, who had failed in four years to bring the equipment maker, created by the 2006 merger of Alcatel of France and Lucent Technologies of New Jersey, to sustained profit.

Mr. Combes left Vodafone last summer after agreeing to take over as chief executive of SFR, a French mobile operator owned by Vivendi. But he withdrew from the job after the sudden departure of Jean-Bernard Lévy as Vivendi’s chief executive.

In brief remarks to senior executives this morning in Paris, Mr. Combes said he planned to conduct a “listening tour” of employees, shareholders and other stakeholders before formulating a strategy for Alcatel-Lucent, which lost 1.4 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in 2012.

The company is in the midst of cutting 7 percent of its global work force, 5,500 of 76,000 jobs, by the end of this year.

In a statement, Mr. Combes said he would work to return Alcatel-Lucent to lasting profitability, something that has eluded it since the trans-Atlantic merger.

“This is a company I know well,” he said in a statement, “and I look forward to succeeding Ben, working with the key international customers and driving the business into sustained profitability for its customers, employees and shareholders.”

Alcatel-Lucent’s shares fell 1.8 percent, to 1.12 euros, in Paris trading after the announcement. Alexander Peterc, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas in London, said investors had hoped for an executive with more of a track record as a cost-cutter. He said that Mr. Combes should quickly identify which businesses were for sale.

The company has indicated that its optical submarine cable business and its enterprise business of selling equipment to large companies and organizations are on the block, Mr. Peterc said.

“Alcatel-Lucent is in a crisis situation, and even just identifying which businesses it intends to sell would be a step forward that could save thousands of jobs,” Mr. Peterc said. “They have tried for six years since the merger and have spent 4 billion euros on restructuring to turn this company around, and it hasn’t worked yet.”

Mr. Verwaayen, the former chief of the British telecom operator BT, integrated the Alcatel and Lucent product lines and organizations under a unified brand. When he announced on Feb. 7 that he would step down, he said in a call with analysts that the company was reviewing its entire business portfolio with an eye to possible asset sales.

In December, the company secured 1.62 billion euros in emergency financing from Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs to buy more time. As a condition of the loans, the company pledged a percentage of revenue derived from future asset sales.

Martin Nilsson, an analyst at Handelsbanken in Stockholm, said Mr. Combes would most likely be forced to take major steps to expedite the resizing of Alcatel-Lucent, including selling some businesses. Only 12 percent of the company’s work force, roughly 9,000 people, is in France. The rest are spread around the world, mostly in the United States, China, India, the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea.

“I think irrespective of the C.E.O. they had chosen, this is the main challenge for Alcatel-Lucent at this time,” Mr. Nilsson said. “It has been seemingly very difficult for this company to reach sustained profitability.”

In another potential signal that Alcatel-Lucent may be entering a phase of greater reorganization, the company announced that it had appointed Jean C. Monty, the former president and chief executive of Nortel Networks and Bell Canada, vice chairman of the board, a new position.

Philippe Camus, the Alcatel-Lucent chairman, said in a statement that Mr. Monty would be working closely with Mr. Combes to sort out the company’s future.

“We are fortunate to have such an experienced colleague to support Michel Combes in his new role,” Mr. Camus said. “I’m looking forward to working more closely with Jean, and I’m convinced Alcatel-Lucent will benefit from his incredible knowledge of our business.”

Mr. Nilsson said that Alcatel-Lucent’s turnaround would not be easy. Selling money-losing businesses and cutting research and development spending to increase profit will decrease Alcatel-Lucent’s base of sales and could limit its future growth potential by slowing the development of new products.

“It is very easy for tech companies to get into a downward spiral,” Mr. Nilsson said.

Alcatel-Lucent has declined to say which businesses it might sell. In 2012, sales fell more than 20 percent in its optical networking business and 17 percent in wireless networking. It blamed the lower sales on the rapid transition by United States operators to faster network gear based on Long Term Evolution technology, which reduced demand for Alcatel-Lucent’s second- and third-generation products.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 22, 2013

An earlier version of this article misspelled, in one reference, the last name of the departing Alcatel-Lucent chief executive. He is Ben Verwaayen, not Verwaaven. It also misspelled the given name of an Exane BNP Paribas analyst. He is Alexander Peterc, not Aleksander. Additionally, an earlier summary for the article misstated the size of Alcatel-Lucent’s loss in 2012. It was 1.4 billion euros, not 1.4 euros.

Purchasing Department Fraud - A Major Threat and Hard to Detect

One of the greatest fraud risks that you and your clients face is within the purchasing function, as a tremendous amount of funds flow through most companies? cash disbursement and purchasing departments.

ENI Announces Major Gas Find Off Mozambique

Four of the five largest oil and gas discoveries in the world this year have been made off Mozambique, including three earlier finds by Eni, according to the consultants Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh. These discoveries have the potential to put Mozambique, which previously had little oil and gas production, in the gas-exporting big leagues with countries like Qatar and Australia.

Although Eni is ranked only about eighth among Western oil companies in terms of output, with about 1.7 million barrels a day — about half the size of BP or Royal Dutch Shell — the company is a big natural gas player in Europe. And Eni is emerging as a leader in Mozambique exploration.

The newest finds, from the sixth and seventh wells that Eni has drilled there, add an additional six trillion cubic feet of gas to what the Italian company has already found. That is a large amount of gas but relatively incremental. It raises the total to 68 trillion cubic feet that Eni now says it has found in its Mozambique exploration concession, called Area 4, where Eni has a 70 percent shareholding.

Three other shareholders — Galp Energia of Portugal, Kogas of South Korea and ENH, Mozambique’s national oil company — each hold 10 percent.

The total amount discovered is equivalent to about 12 billion barrels of oil. A high proportion of the gas is likely to be recoverable, Eni said.

According to Eni’s estimates, its share of the Mozambique discoveries so far could be worth around $15 billion.

The Eni finds coincide with an effort by the company’s chief executive, Paolo Scaroni, to focus more on exploration and production, and less on transmission of natural gas in Italy. When you make a business of exploration and are successful, he said, “you make a huge amount of money.”

Eni first found gas in Mozambique last year, closely following a discovery by Anadarko Petroleum of the United States, which right now is Eni’s main competitor in the region.

The two companies are now negotiating with the government on a development plan.

The most profitable market for the Mozambique gas is likely to be exports to Asia as super-cooled liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., on special ships. The Web site of the Instituto Nacional de Petróleo, the country’s energy regulator, has a presentation that indicates that as many as 10 L.N.G. conversion plants could be built, which would make Mozambique a significant player in the world gas market.

Mr. Scaroni said there could also be a role for an offshore floating L.N.G. conversion plant, a technology that Royal Dutch Shell is now developing for use off western Australia. Shell recently tried to buy Cove Energy, which had a small position in the Mozambique discoveries, but was outbid by Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production.

Eni is not currently a major player in L.N.G. and may need help with the huge capital costs for developing the gas, which Mr. Scaroni put in the “tens of billions” of dollars.

Because Anadarko is not an L.N.G. specialist, either, it is widely thought in the industry that both companies will bring in partners.

Mr. Scaroni said he had been talking to potential partners “but we are fairly reluctant to strike a deal with anybody until we finish our exploration.”

A recent report by Bernstein Research says that Mozambique will be “Eni’s most significant project, although we do not expect production until 2019 at the earliest.”

The gas discoveries off Mozambique are contained in sandstone deposits in what were ancient river canyons, similar to those off West Africa and elsewhere.

What makes the Mozambique discoveries particularly rich is that the sandstone layers containing the gas are thick — as much as 300 meters, or nearly 1,000 feet — indicating sizable reserves.

“Mozambique is a very positive exploration story,” Mansur Mohammed, a Wood Mackenzie analyst, said. “We are talking about an unprecedented high exploration success rate that transformed the outlook for the region.”

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: December 5, 2012

An earlier version of this article misspelled the first name of ENI’s chief executive. He is Paolo Scaroni, not Paulo.

Purchasing Department Fraud - A Major Threat and Hard to Detect

One of the greatest fraud risks that you and your clients face is within the purchasing function, as a tremendous amount of funds flow through most companies? cash disbursement and purchasing departments.

Windows, Staple of Most PCs, Gets a Major Makeover

But last week, when he got his hands on a laptop running the newest version of Windows for the first time, Mr. McCarthy was flummoxed.

Many of the familiar signposts from PCs of yore are gone in Microsoft’s new software, Windows 8, like the Start button for getting to programs and the drop-down menus that list their functions.

It took Mr. McCarthy several minutes just to figure out how to compose an e-mail message in Windows 8, which has a stripped-down look and on-screen buttons that at times resemble the runic assembly instructions for Ikea furniture.

“It made me feel like the biggest amateur computer user ever,” said Mr. McCarthy, 59, a copywriter in New York.

Windows, which has more than a billion users around the world, is getting a radical makeover, a rare move for a product with such vast reach. The new design is likely to cause some head-scratching for those who buy the latest machines when Windows 8 goes on sale this Friday.

To Microsoft and early fans of Windows 8, the software is a fresh, bold reinvention of the operating system for an era of touch-screen devices like the iPad, which are reshaping computing. Microsoft needs the software to succeed so it can restore some of its fading relevance after years of watching the likes of Apple and Google outflank it in the mobile market.

To its detractors, though, Windows 8 is a renovation gone wrong, one that will needlessly force people to relearn how they use a device every bit as common as a microwave oven.

“I don’t think any user was asking for that,” said John Ludwig, a former Microsoft executive who worked on Windows and is now a venture capitalist in the Seattle area. “They just want the current user interface, but better.”

Mr. Ludwig said Microsoft’s strategy was risky, but it had to do something to improve its chances in the mobile business: “Doing nothing was a strategy that was sure to fail.”

Little about the new Windows will look familiar to those who have used older versions. The Start screen, a kind of main menu, is dominated by a colorful grid of rectangles and squares that users can tap with a finger or click with a mouse to start applications. Many of these so-called live tiles constantly flicker with new information piped in from the Internet, like news headlines and Facebook photos.

What is harder to find are many of the conventions that have been a part of PCs since most people began using them, like the strip of icons at the bottom of the screen for jumping between applications. The mail and calendar programs are starkly minimalist. It is as if an automaker hid the speedometer, turn signals and gear shift in its cars, and told drivers to tap their dashboards to reveal those functions. There is a more conventional “desktop” mode for running Microsoft Office and older programs, though there is no way to permanently switch to it.

Microsoft knew in the summer of 2009 that it wanted to shake up Windows. It held focus groups and showed people prototypes of the tile interface and its live updates.

“We would get this delightful reaction of people who would say, ‘This is so great, and it has Office too,’ ” said Jensen Harris, Microsoft’s director of program management for the Windows user experience.

Sixteen million people have been using early versions of the software. The boldness of the changes has delighted some users, who say they believe that for the first time, the company is taking greater creative risks than its more celebrated rival, Apple.

“I think it’s functional, clean,” said Andries van Dam, a pioneer in computer graphics and a Brown University computer science professor, who receives research money from Microsoft. “I welcome it.”

Younger users may be more likely to embrace the new approach. Joanna Lin, 23, who works in sales and marketing for a hotel chain in New York, said she was impressed with the software. “The feeling was very fluid,” said Ms. Lin, who was the most enthusiastic of five people that The New York Times asked to briefly try Windows 8 last week. “Definitely a step up from Windows 7.”

But the product is a major gamble for Microsoft, a company whose clout in the technology industry has been waning. The PC business, which generates much of Microsoft’s revenue, is in a severe slump as newer products like smartphones and tablets take more dollars from peoples’ wallets.

Purchasing Department Fraud - A Major Threat and Hard to Detect

One of the greatest fraud risks that you and your clients face is within the purchasing function, as a tremendous amount of funds flow through most companies? cash disbursement and purchasing departments.