Reworking Labor: A.F.L.-C.I.O. Has Plan to Add Millions of Nonunion Members

When the labor federation holds its convention in Los Angeles beginning on Sunday, he will ask its delegates for a green light to pursue these ambitious reforms. Needless to say, some within the labor movement view them as heretical.

Mr. Trumka says he believes that if unions are having a hard time increasing their ranks, they can at least restore their clout by building a broad coalition to advance a worker-friendly political and economic agenda. He has called for inviting millions of nonunion workers into the labor movement even if their own workplaces are not unionized. Not stopping there, he has proposed making progressive groups — like the NAACP; the Sierra Club; the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic civil rights group; and MomsRising, an advocacy group for women’s and family issues — either formal partners or affiliates of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.

“The crisis for labor has deepened,” Mr. Trumka said in an interview. “It’s at a point where we really must do something differently. We really have to experiment.”

By crisis, he means myriad setbacks, including a steady loss of union membership, frequent defeats in organizing drives and unions being forced to accept multiyear wage freezes. Not only have labor leaders faced the embarrassing enactment of anti-union legislation in onetime labor strongholds like Wisconsin and Michigan, but they could not even win passage of legislation making it easier to unionize when President Obama was elected and the Democrats controlled the House and Senate.

In language far different from decades past — when labor often talked with ‘we’ll get it done ourselves’ bravado — Mr. Trumka said: “It’s pretty obvious to all of our progressive partners that none of us can do it alone. If we’re going to change the political and economic environment, it’s going to take us all working together.”

Gary N. Chaison, an industrial relations professor at Clark University, said: “Unions are thrashing around looking for answers. It just might prove successful from the very fact that there is great desperation to it. There’s a sense that this is make-or-break time for labor. Either major things are done, or it will be too late to resuscitate the labor movement.”

Labor’s reinvention process is taking many forms. The A.F.L.-C.I.O. has set up a dozen committees — of historians, young workers, Web experts, pollsters — to propose ways to reinvent labor. Our Walmart, a union-backed group of Walmart employees, has held repeated protests in the hope of somehow finding pressure points to persuade the giant retailer to improve pay and benefits. The Service Employees International Union helped organize a wave of one-day strikes at fast-food restaurants to create a nationwide movement of low-wage workers with the aim of pressuring McDonald’s, Subway and other chains to raise wages.

“We’re trying a lot of things, and some of them will work and some of them won’t,” Mr. Trumka said. “We’ll try to amplify those that work, and we’ll jettison what doesn’t work.”

Unions have continued to look for new groups of workers to organize. In an unusual effort, the service employees union is seeking to organize all adjunct professors — an often low-paid group — in the Boston area. After several fruitless attempts, the United Automobile Workers has accelerated its efforts to organize automobile plants in the South, pushing hard at Nissan, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. In one creative approach to unionizing, the U.A.W. is working with VW to create a German-style works council at its plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. In anti-union Texas, a dozen unions are undertaking a decade-long organizing drive aimed at greatly increasing unionization there and helping turn Texas politics from red to blue.

Many conservatives and businesses applaud labor’s decline, which they say is happening largely because today’s workers have little use for unions. Businesses have always opposed unions, saying they push up wages and hurt productivity through collective bargaining and work rules. Moreover, they say labor’s political war chest, formed from members’ dues, has given unions too much power over politicians and regulators.

But many liberals and union members worry that if unions grow weaker, that will lead to more income inequality and less of a political counterweight to corporate America and conservative billionaires.

“What makes this a moment of hope is there is a general recognition that things are out of balance in terms of inequality and wage stagnation,” said Craig Becker, the A.F.L.-C.I.O.’s general counsel. “You have to find a way to create or re-create vibrant worker organizations to address those problems.”

Underlying all this strategizing is a sense that if unions are ever to reverse their decline, they will have to somehow inspire Americans to engage in collective action again. “You can’t solve the problems of the labor movement or the progressive movement until you restore the belief in collective power,” said Karen Nussbaum, executive director of Working America, an A.F.L.-C.I.O. affiliate that mobilizes nonunion workers during elections.

In Germany, Union Culture Clashes With Amazon’s Labor Practices

But across the Atlantic — nein, non, no.

Even as President Obama spoke about middle-class jobs last week at an Amazon warehouse in Tennessee, Amazon was facing strikes at warehouses in Germany, its second-biggest market. Unions there say the company has imported American-style business practices — in particular, an antipathy to organized labor — that stand at odds with European norms.

“In Germany, the idea that warehouse workers are going to be getting opposition from an employer when it comes to the right to organize, that’s virtually unheard-of,” said Marcus Courtney, a technology and communications department head at Uni Global Union, a federation of trade unions based in Nyon, Switzerland. “It puts Amazon out in left field.”

Amazon is hardly out there alone, however. Large American technology companies are increasingly running into obstacles as they expand in Europe. For Facebook and Google, the running issue is privacy. Google was fined this year by German authorities for illegally collecting personal data while creating its Street View mapping service, after facing minimal sanctions over Street View at home. Meanwhile, European privacy regulators are considering tough regulations to protect consumers on the Internet, a direct challenge to Google, Facebook and other online companies that mine personal data.

Antitrust officials in Europe are scrutinizing Apple’s relationships with wireless carriers, as well as Google’s competitive practices. And Google, Apple and Amazon have all been criticized by European lawmakers for tactics that help them minimize their tax bills.

Amazon has been criticized for its working conditions in the United States — but not nearly to the same extent as in Europe. On the surface, Amazon’s labor problems in Germany revolve around wages.

The union says workers in warehouses in two small German cities are properly classified as retail employees, and should be paid at the higher rate required for people who work in department stores and other retail outlets. Amazon says they are more properly classified as warehouse workers, and paid at a lower rate.

The subtext, though, is Amazon’s opposition to unions in its warehouses as a general principle, because the company fears unions will slow down the kind of behind-the-scenes innovation that has propelled its growth.

Dave Clark, the company’s vice president of worldwide operations and customer service, says Amazon views unions as intermediaries that will want to have a say on everything from employee scheduling to changes in processes for handling and packaging orders. Amazon prizes its ability to quickly introduce changes like these into its warehouses to improve the experience of its customers, he said.

Last year, the company spent $775 million to buy a manufacturer of robots that it plans to eventually deploy in its warehouses, though it has not said when they would come to Germany. The last thing it wants is to have to get approval from unions for such changes.

“This really isn’t about higher wages,” Mr. Clark said. “It isn’t a cost question for us. It’s about what our relationship is with our people.”

“We’re still a developing industry,” he added — despite the fact that Amazon posted revenue of $15.7 billion in the last quarter and the company is enjoying a buoyant stock price.

In the United States, Amazon successfully thwarted efforts to unionize. Over a decade ago, Mr. Courtney of Uni Global led an unsuccessful effort in the company’s home state of Washington to organize Amazon’s customer service representatives.

Two years ago, an investigative article by The Morning Call newspaper in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley chronicled poor working conditions in an Amazon warehouse in the state, including instances where it stationed paramedics outside to take heat-stressed workers to the emergency room. Amazon says it has addressed the problem by installing air-conditioning in all of its facilities.

More recently, a firm that provides temporary employees for Amazon warehouses is defending itself in a class-action suit that claims the firm shortchanged workers on pay as they waited in security lines to exit warehouses.

Jonathan Barnes, a spokesman for the staffing firm named in the suit, Integrity Staffing Solutions, declined to comment.

But it is a different story in Germany, where the powerful labor movement behind the Amazon strikes traces its roots back more than two centuries.

Mr. Courtney, the Swiss-based head of the federation of trade unions, said other American tech giants, including I.B.M. and Hewlett-Packard, have been more tolerant than Amazon of unions in their European operations.

And the strikes in Germany raise especially knotty problems for the company, which has ambitious expansion plans there.

Ikea Admits Use of Forced Labor in the 1980s

A report by auditors at Ernst & Young concluded that Ikea, a Swedish company, knowingly benefited from forced labor in the former East Germany to manufacture some of its products in the 1980s. Ikea had commissioned the report in May as a result of accusations that both political and criminal prisoners were involved in making components of Ikea furniture and that some Ikea employees knew about it.

“Even though Ikea Group took steps to secure that prisoners were not used in production, it is now clear that these measures were not effective enough,” the company said in a statement on Friday.

The use of political prisoners as forced labor, even decades ago, is a publicity disaster for a company that with its familiar blue and yellow logo seems at times like a cultural ambassador for Sweden. Inexpensive Ikea furnishings have filled countless student apartments and the homes of millions of young families around the world.

Accusations against Ikea started to appear about a year ago in news media reports in Germany and Sweden. Ikea’s admission has given new impetus to efforts by victims’ groups to receive compensation for work they were forced to perform under the Communist government in East Germany, an issue that has long been overshadowed here by the large and deadly slave-labor program under the Nazis.

“There’s little recognition,” said Hugo Diederich, the chairman of the Association of Victims of Stalinism, himself a former forced laborer, after a news conference here a short walk from the former Checkpoint Charlie border crossing, in a building that stands along the path of the Berlin Wall.

Ikea is not the only company that has been linked to forced labor in the former East Germany by purchasing goods from suppliers there, though the actual number may never be known.

Mr. Diederich said that after an attempt to escape from East Germany, he was forced to make steel pipes for the firms Klöckner & Company and Mannesmann.

At least two well-known mail-order companies in the former West Germany, Neckermann and Quelle, which have since run into financial trouble, have also been accused of using forced labor.

Christian Sachse, a Berlin historian, said forced labor permeated institutions across East Germany, and that it would take “years of research to properly understand the field.”

Mr. Diederich said that more needs to be done for the victims, many of whom today live under worse circumstances than their former tormentors. “This will raise the pressure enormously on politicians to act,” he added.

Ikea’s announcement received a mixed response. There was praise that the company had made an effort to uncover unpleasant facts about its past, but also criticism that it had not been transparent enough with the results. Rather than releasing the entire report, the company made only a four-page summary available, citing privacy concerns.

But Steffen Alisch, a researcher on prisons in the former East Germany at the Free University in Berlin, said, “They have to make the entire report available, and they have to do it quickly.”

The fact that Ikea retained Ernst & Young for the inquiry instead of using independent academic experts also raised questions. “Ernst & Young has no experience with research into dictatorships and is clearly not objective,” said Ronald Lässig, chairman of the East German victims’ group DDR-Opfer-Hilfe. “What Ikea did today was little more than an event for show.”

Investigators examined 20,000 pages of internal Ikea records, as well as 80,000 pages of documents from federal and state archives. They interviewed about 90 people, including current and former Ikea workers and witnesses from East Germany.

A political prisoner in Naumburg, about an hour’s drive from Leipzig, told investigators that he was sent to VEB Metallwaren Naumburg, one of East Germany’s state-owned enterprises. He was put to work placing metal pegs in chair legs and furniture rollers, and remembered seeing boxes with the Ikea logo.

A purchaser for the company said that “the use of prison labor was not an official Ikea strategy, but that there was an awareness within the company about the issue.”

“The G.D.R. did not differentiate between political and criminal prisoners,” Ernst & Young wrote, referring to East Germany, adding that “during this time period, many innocent individuals were sent to prison.” Ikea repeatedly raised concerns about the possible use of forced labor at the time but no action was taken, the report said.

Jochen Staadt, a professor at the Free University of Berlin, said it was well known at the time that East Germany was using prisoners to work in factories but that West Germany encouraged the production of goods in the East because it allowed the East to reduce its debt. At the same time, companies liked to move production to East Germany because costs were lower.

Professor Staadt said companies like Ikea would still have paid for the work in East Germany but that the pay never reached the workers. “It was pocketed by the G.D.R.,” he said.

Ikea employees did visit the production sites in East Germany, but rules governing such visits were strict, that way reducing the effectiveness of site inspections. Any visit had to be registered and approved in advance and could take place only in selected parts of the plants, and a representative of the East German government had to be there.

Ikea said Friday it was sorry about the episodes and pledged to donate money to research on forced labor in the former East Germany.

“We deeply regret that this could happen,” Jeanette Skjelmose, sustainability manager at Ikea, said in a statement.

Rainer Wagner, chairman of the victims’ group UOKG, said at the news conference here that “a broad public clarification” was necessary, not just from Ikea but from “all the firms” that used forced labor. But Mr. Wagner also thanked Ikea for its “pioneering role” in helping to bring greater public attention to the subject.

Nicholas Kulish reported from Berlin, and Julia Werdigier from London. Chris Cottrell contributed reporting from Berlin.

DealBook: As Labor Talks Collapse, Hostess Turns Out Lights

What might be the last Twinkie in America — at least for a while — rolled off a factory line Friday morning. It was just like the millions that had come before it, golden, cream-filled empty calories, a monument to classic American junk food.

But it is likely to be the last under the current management. After not one but two bankruptcies, Hostess Brands, the beleaguered purveyor of Twinkies, Ho Hos, Sno Balls and Wonder bread, announced plans to wind down operations and sell off its brands.

Since filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, Hostess has been trying to renegotiate its labor contracts in a bid to cut costs. But the talks fell apart, and last week one union went on strike.

The so-called liquidation will probably spell the end of Hostess, an 82-year-old company that has endured wars, countless diet fads and even an earlier Chapter 11 filing. Although the company could theoretically negotiate a last-minute deal with the union, Hostess is moving to shut factories and lay off a large majority of its 18,500 employees.

But Twinkies and the other well-known brands could eventually find new life under a different owner. As part of the process, Hostess is looking to auction off its assets, and suitors could find value in the portfolio.

“The potential loss of iconic brands is difficult,” said the company’s chief executive, Gregory F. Rayburn. “But it’s overshadowed by the 18,500 families that are out of work.”

The company’s current problems stem, in part, from the legacy of its past.

An amalgam of brands and businesses, the company has evolved over the years through acquisitions. In the 1960s and 1970s, the company, then called Interstate, bought more than a dozen regional bakeries scattered across the country. A couple of decades later, it paid $330 million for the Continental Baking Company, picking up a portfolio of brands like Wonder and Hostess.

As the national appetite for junk food waned, the company fell on hard times, struggling against rising labor and commodity costs. In 2004, it filed for bankruptcy for the first time.

Five years later, the company emerged from Chapter 11 as Hostess Brands, so named after its most prominent division. With America’s new health-conscious attitude, it sought to reshape the business to changing times, introducing new products like 100-calorie Twinkie Bites.

But the new private equity backers loaded the company with debt, making it difficult to invest in new equipment. Earlier this year, Hostess had more than $860 million of debt.

The labor costs, too, proved insurmountable, a situation that has been complicated by years of deal-making. The bulk of the work force belongs to 12 unions, including the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union.

The combination of debt and labor costs has hurt profits. The company posted revenue of $2.5 billion in the fiscal year 2011, the last available data. But it reported a net loss of $341 million.

With profits eroding, the company filed for Chapter 11 in January. It originally hoped to reorganize its finances, seeking lower labor costs, including an immediate 8 percent pay cut.

The negotiations have been contentious.

The Teamsters, which has 6,700 members at Hostess, said it played an instrumental role in ousting Hostess’s previous chief executive, Brian J. Driscoll, this year after the board tripled his compensation to $2.55 million. The union also hired a financial consultant, Harry J. Wilson, who had worked on the General Motors restructuring.

While highly critical of management missteps, the Teamsters agreed in September to major concessions, including cuts in wages and company contributions to health care. As part of the deal, the union was to receive a 25 percent share of the company’s stock and a $100 million claim in bankruptcy.

“The objective was to preserve jobs,” said Ken Hall, the Teamsters’ general secretary-treasurer. “When you have a company that’s in the financial situation that Hostess is, it’s just not possible to maintain everything you have.”

But Hostess reached an impasse with the bakery union. Frank Hurt, the union’s president, seemed to lose patience with Hostess’s management, upset that it was in bankruptcy for the second time despite $100 million in labor concessions. He saw little promise that management would turn things around.

“Our members decided they were not going to take any more abuse from a company they have given so much to for so many years,” said Mr. Hurt. “They decided that they were not going to agree to another round of outrageous wage and benefit cuts and give up their pension only to see yet another management team fail and Wall Street vulture capitalists and ‘restructuring specialists’ walk away with untold millions of dollars.”

About a month ago, Mr. Rayburn said, the bakers union stopped returning the company’s phone calls altogether. For its part, the bakery union said the company had taken an overly aggressive approach. David Durkee, the union’s secretary-treasurer, said Hostess had given an ultimatum. “They said, ‘If you do not ratify this, we are going to liquidate based on your vote.’ ”

With the company standing firm, the bakery union struck last week, affecting nearly two-thirds of the company’s factories across the country. The Teamsters drivers honored the picket line, further shutting down the operations. The company gave union members until 5 p.m. on Thursday to return to work.

Mr. Rayburn said the financial strain of the strike was too much for the company, which had already reached the limits of its bankruptcy financing. Over the last week, Hostess lost tens of millions of dollars as many customers’ orders went unfilled. And its lenders would not open their wallets one more time.

By Thursday morning, Hostess’s executives were ensconced in the company’s headquarters in Irving, Tex., still hoping that enough employees would return to work to resume production. A small number of workers had already crossed the picket lines that had sprung up at most of the baker’s factories, but more than 10 plants remained well below their necessary capacity.

Mr. Rayburn’s deadline of 5 p.m. passed without either side backing down. Soon after, executives asked the company’s legal advisers to finish the court motions that would begin the liquidation. Papers had been drawn up well before that afternoon.

Around 7 p.m., Mr. Rayburn had his final discussions with the company’s board and his senior managers and made the call to begin winding down.

“We were trying to focus on where people were having success, but I had to make a call,” Mr. Rayburn said.

NFL Tries to Frame Concussion Litigation As Labor Dispute

The multidistrict litigation brought by thousands of current and former football players who have suffered from the effects of repeated concussions should be dismissed because the responsibility for players' health rested with the individual teams, not the league, the National Football League argued in its motion to dismiss.

In Midwest, Labor Presses for a Vote to Lock In Union Rights

Michigan’s unions are asking voters to approve a referendum on the ballot this November, known as Proposal 2, that would lock a series of labor protections into the state Constitution, including the right of public sector unions to bargain collectively and a prohibition against the legislature’s enacting a “right to work” law.

The ballot campaign represents an attempt by unions and their Democratic allies to slow or stop the wave of Republican-backed measures adopted in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and other states in the last two years to curb collective bargaining and weaken unions, especially those representing government workers.

“Besides the presidential race, Proposal 2 is probably going to be the most significant thing on the ballot nationally,” said F. Vincent Vernuccio, director of labor policy at the Mackinac Center, a conservative research center based in Midland, Mich. “Michigan is surrounded by Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio — states that have taken wildly different views of private and public sector unions. The nation is on a teeter right now on union matters, and Michigan will give momentum to one side or the other depending on how this plays out.”

Business groups and Michigan’s Republican governor, Rick Snyder, say that if the referendum to enshrine labor rights in the Constitution is approved, it will cast a major cloud over the state’s business climate — broadcasting to the world that organized labor, whenever it deems fit, can use its muscle to go to the voters to trump the legislature and governor.

“Michigan’s union bosses are field-testing a new weapon,” said Rich Studley, president of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. “If this weapon is successful in banning legislation, we’ll see it deployed in the 21 other states that allow initiatives and referendums.”

Further flexing their muscles, unions are sponsoring two other proposals on the Michigan ballot. One would repeal a law that allows emergency managers appointed to oversee financially distressed communities to void union contracts. Another would amend the Constitution to guarantee home health aides the right to unionize.

Both sides are flooding the airwaves with ads about Proposal 2, with each side accusing the other of using misleading scare tactics.

In one union-backed commercial, for example, a firefighter is wearing an elaborate fireproof apparatus over his head. “This air pack I’m wearing gives me 30 minutes to look inside your burning house and find you,” he says. “Having the most modern dependable equipment when the clock is ticking, that counts. If it comes from collective bargaining, the politicians can’t cut it without our say-so.”

Opponents are broadcasting an ad that begins with a child leaving for school. “When we send them off in the morning, we should be certain they’re safe in school,” the voice-over says. “If Proposal 2 passes, it would eliminate safety rules for school bus drivers. Worse, Proposal 2 could prohibit schools from removing employees with criminal records. That’s dangerous for kids and terrifying for parents.”

Although most of the campaign’s financial disclosures are not due until after the election, political experts estimate that more than $30 million will be spent in the fight, with national business and labor groups contributing substantial financing.

At the moment, the proposal’s chances of passing are difficult to predict. Proponents had a significant lead at first, but that has eroded as business-backed groups have escalated their attacks. A Detroit News poll released Oct. 12 found that 43.2 percent of the 600 people surveyed supported the proposal, and 41.8 percent opposed it. The difference was within the poll’s margin of error.

Union leaders say Proposal 2 has a simple aim: to protect collective bargaining against further assault.

Economix: How Bureau of Labor Statistics Tames Volatile Raw Data for Jobs Reports

7:32 p.m. | Updated

Dollars to doughnuts.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest level since President Obama took office. With just a month to go before the election, the news seemed too good to be true, at least for some Mitt Romney supporters.

Almost immediately some conservative pundits began accusing the Labor Department, which released the jobs numbers on Friday, of cooking the books. After all, the household survey — the survey that the unemployment rate comes from — showed that the number of people with jobs rose 873,000 in September, though the gain had averaged 164,000 each month earlier this year.

These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political. The numbers come from a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000. Every month there are wild swings, and no one takes them at face value. The swings usually attract less attention, though, because the political stakes are usually lower.

Look how noisy these numbers are, and always have been!

The numbers, by the way, are especially imprecise (and prone to revision) when the economy is making a turn, or when regular seasonal patterns start to change. And there is reason to believe that one particular seasonal pattern — the start of the college school year — may be partly responsible for the big swing in September.

One of the biggest sources of volatility in the last couple of months (and one of the major contributors to the big bump in job-getters in September) was the group of workers between 20 and 24 years old.

Historically, the employment levels for that group have dropped sharply in September, probably because many people in their early 20s are leaving summer jobs and going back to school.

For each year since 1948, the average level of employment for this group has fallen by 398,000 from August to September. In fact, before this year, employment for this age group had risen just two times in that period: 1954 (a gain of 5,000), and 1961 (a gain of 22,000).

This year was the third time on record that the number of people in this age group gained jobs in September, and the gain was big: 101,000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Numbers are not adjusted for seasonality.

How to explain this major deviation from the historical trend, other than conspiracy theories?

If you look back at August, an unusually high share of this age group stopped working, compared with past employment patterns in August. From 1948 to 2011, the number of those 20 to 24 who had jobs fell by an average of 98,000 from July to August. This past August, it fell by 530,000, the biggest loss on record.

Over the last couple of decades, in fact, the job losses for this age group have been growing each August, suggesting that over time young people have been leaving their summer jobs earlier and earlier.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Numbers are not adjusted for seasonality.

In other words, seasonal patterns might be evolving — people starting school and leaving their summer jobs earlier in the summer — which has big implications for how the Labor Department digests and reports the monthly employment data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts its raw survey data to correct for seasonal patterns, and since a decline in employment is expected for those 20 to 24, the economists at the bureau increased the level of employment for this group in the seasonally adjusted numbers.

Changes in seasonal patterns like this one can introduce more error into the headline numbers, and can at least partly explain why the overall change in household employment looked so much bigger in September than seems plausible. After seasonal adjustment, the increase in employment among those 20 to 24 was given as 368,000. That’s about 42 percent of the overall increase in employment growth for people of all ages. (After making seasonal adjustments on the August figures, the employment level for 20- to 24-year-olds was reported as declining by 250,000.)

All of which is to say the bureau aims to release the most informative numbers it can. But it is seeking to measure the state of the American job market quickly, based on surveys that are inherently incomplete — and the adjustments that are meant to fill in the gaps have their own shortcomings, particularly when seasonal trends change.

In case you still believe that the models the bureau uses are being manipulated to put President Obama in a better light, note that there are no political appointees currently serving in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The employees are all career civil servants who have worked under both Republican and Democratic administrations. (The commissioner of the bureau is supposed to be a political appointee, but that position is vacant. The acting commissioner, John M. Galvin, has held the position since January, and he is a career civil servant.)

Economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly adjust the models they use to account for factors like seasonality and the number of new companies entering the economy, and the revisions are often very large.

Economists outside the bureau have been weighing in, too, both on how the latest numbers should be adjusted and what the next few months of jobs reports should look like. A paper presented last month as part of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity series, for example, incorporated data on people flowing into and out of unemployment to forecast that the unemployment rate would most likely stagnate for a few months to come.