Showing posts with label Industry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Industry. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Japan’s E-Reader Industry Struggles to Keep Up as Amazon Takes the Lead

It was a T-shirt emblazoned with “Beat Amazon.” Mr. Mikitani wanted to signal that the two companies had no intention of slugging it out in a print-versus-digital fight in Japan.

The alliance did little to help them defend against Amazon. Four months later, Amazon brought its Kindle e-reader to Japan. It quickly became Japan’s top-selling e-reader, gaining 38.3 percent of the market, according to the MM Research Institute, a data firm in Tokyo. Even though Rakuten’s Kobo had beaten Kindle to market by nearly five months, it grabbed only 33 percent of Japan’s e-reader sales during the same 12-month period. Sony, which had stated its goal of selling half of all e-readers by 2012, managed to hold only 25.5 percent with its devices.

Amazon sells its Kindle in 14 countries, Japan being the very latest. Misao Konishi, an Amazon spokeswoman, declined to talk about the company’s goals for the Japanese market, but she did offer some insight into Amazon’s ambitions. “Every book ever printed, in every language, available to buy in 60 seconds,” Ms. Konishi said. “There are many things to accomplish in order to achieve that vision in Japan.”

The Kindle’s quick success is a stark contrast to the Japanese companies’ efforts. Until Amazon showed up, e-readers failed to live up to expectations. Sony brought out the first reader using E Ink technology in Japan in 2004, the LIBRIe.

Buyers of the LIBRIe, which like early Kindles showed black text on a white background, suffered from a convoluted marketplace that allowed them only to rent e-books, not buy them. Amazon, which developed its Kindle with digital books people could buy from — where else? — Amazon.com, found instant success after its introduction in the United States in 2007.

Sony stopped selling its device that year. The company’s subsequent e-readers, even after Sony developed a library of books to buy, have met with limited success.

Japan isn’t a big contributor to global e-reader sales, estimated at around 19.9 million units by IDC, a market research firm. MM Research said that a total of 470,000 devices were sold there last year, and that it expected sales to climb about 10 percent to 520,000 units in 2014.

Amazon’s victory over Sony and Rakuten, which got into the e-reader business when it bought the Toronto-based Kobo in November 2011, began with aggressive pricing. Amazon sold the Kindle Paperwhite for 7,980 yen, or about $80. Not only was its price about $40 less than it was in the United States, it also matched that of Rakuten’s Kobo and Sony’s PRS-T2.

In a bid to gain market share, Rakuten dropped the price of its e-reader in July to to 5,480 yen, and will continue to focus on this basic model, even as the company launches the new high-end Kobo Aura HD in Europe and the United States in September.

But Amazon wasn’t winning just because of price. It also gave consumers another reason to prefer the Kindle. “The reason for the Kindle’s success in Japan is the same as it was in America,” said Munechika Nishida, author of “The Truth About the E-book Revolution” and a technology analyst. “The Amazon Web store is the easiest to use, the easiest to understand.”

Sony and Rakuten’s e-readers are not technologically inferior to the Kindle, Mr. Nishida said, but buying e-books on the Kindle marketplace takes fewer steps. Rakuten and Sony’s devices make browsing and purchasing more difficult, he said.

The Japan Kindle store, which opened last October, offers more than 140,000 Japanese-language titles. It added 7,000 more titles in just the last 30 days. Kodansha now has 10,617 e-book titles available on the Kindle marketplace.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: September 2, 2013

An earlier version of this article misidentified the features available on three e-reader models used in a price comparison. The Kindle Paperwhite, the basic Kobo e-reader and the Sony PRS-T2 have monochrome screens, not color screens. 

Monday, July 29, 2013

PC Industry Fights to Adapt as Tablets Muscle In

Like the mainframe, which was said to be dead decades ago but has remained a meaningful business, the PC will almost certainly cheat death. True, mobile devices like the iPad will continue to gore PC sales. Those mobile devices, though, will most likely never satisfy spreadsheet masters, film editors and other workers who depend on multiple screens and the precision of a keyboard and mouse.

Still, there is a strong view among many longtime tech executives that the PC’s relevance will steadily diminish.

“In my humble opinion, the PC as we have known it is in a continuous decline and being relegated to a utility device for businesses,” said Hector Ruiz, the former chief executive of Advanced Micro Devices, a company that makes chips for PCs and other devices.

The mood around the PC industry has become increasingly glum. The business is effectively in a recession, and there is no upturn in sight. During the second quarter of the year, global PC shipments fell around 11 percent, for their fifth consecutive quarter of declines, the worst downturn since the advent of the PC more than 30 years ago.

Intel, supplier of the chips in most PCs, and Microsoft, which makes the Windows operating system on the vast majority of those machines, have delivered disappointing financial results. An overhaul of Microsoft’s software, Windows 8, did not lift sales and may have made them worse.

The once-mighty Dell, deeply weakened by the PC slump, is mired in a struggle with shareholders over a plan to go private, seeking relief from investor pressure. In their bid to take the company private, Michael S. Dell, the founder, and the investment firm Silver Lake have argued that they would turn the company into a corporate software services provider. A vote on Dell’s future is expected this week.

While sales of PCs to businesses remain steady, demand among consumers has plunged, largely because people are instead buying iPads, Kindle Fires and other tablets.

Still, a reality check: more than 300 million PCs are expected to be shipped this year globally. That is a lot of widgets for a business that has caught a cold.

Tablet sales are growing explosively. This year, there are expected to be more than 200 million shipments of the devices, which will for the first time exceed shipments of notebooks, the largest category of PCs, estimates Gartner, the research firm.

Steven P. Jobs, the Apple chief executive who died in 2011, predicted several years ago that PCs would become something like trucks, workhorses used by many people but outnumbered by tablets, the cars of the technology business. (The analogy is somewhat undercut by stats: the most popular vehicle in the United States for several years has been a truck, the Ford F-150.)

One theory is that tablets are leading PC shoppers to postpone purchases of new computers, perhaps by a year or two, but that eventually people will be ready for a fresh machine. “Replacement cycles are being pushed out,” said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein Research.

A more pessimistic view is that a lot of the consumer demand for PCs will never return. Daniel Huttenlocher, the dean and vice provost of Cornell University’s new New York City technology campus, said consumers began buying PCs in big numbers beginning in the 1990s largely because no better device existed for getting on the Internet.

But the PC, he said, was always better suited as an office machine for the production of documents, presentations and other work. In his view, tablets are better for the consumption of content, whether that is watching Netflix or surfing the Web.

“There are way more consumers than producers, period, even in a world with lots of user-generated content,” Dr. Huttenlocher said.

In the first quarter, 53 percent of computer shipments were to the consumer market while 47 percent were to the commercial market, estimates the research firm IDC.

Two Ad Companies Are Said to Merge, Supplanting Industry Leader

The combination of Publicis, based in Paris, and Omnicom, based in New York, would supplant the advertising industry leader, WPP of London. While Omnicom is slightly bigger than Publicis, the deal is being billed as a merger of equals that would have a combined stock market value of more than $30 billion.

News on Friday of talks between the companies was a surprise to analysts and most of Madison Avenue, including some employees in each agency. On Saturday, Publicis said it planned to make a “major corporate announcement” on Sunday. An Omnicom spokeswoman did not return requests for comment. A Publicis spokeswoman declined to comment.

The marriage would bring under one roof separate networks of ad agencies — including BBDO, TBWA and DDB under Omnicom, and Leo Burnett and Saatchi & Saatchi under Publicis. Collectively, the conglomerates represent some of the world’s largest brands including AT&T, Visa and Pepsi at Omnicom and McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart at Publicis. How the agencies would handle potential conflicts is expected to be addressed by the companies on Sunday.

In an interview with The New York Times this month, Publicis’s longtime chief, Maurice Lévy, said he expected much of the growth in the advertising sector to come from emerging markets and mobile and digital advertising. Publicis has been making aggressive acquisitions in digital advertising including agencies like Rosetta and Razorfish.

“I think we are all talking a lot about what the future markets of mobile will be and how we will be able to get the revenue we are expecting from this market,” Mr. Lévy said, citing a $15 million investment in a mobile polling start-up that is focused on emerging markets like Africa. “It is a huge market with incredible possibility for the future. Everyone is fighting very hard and trying to find solutions to get these next billion consumers,” he said.

Omnicom, which analysts say has focused more on expanding its digital operations organically as opposed to through acquisitions, stands to benefit from the media buying power of the Starcom MediaVest Group, a division of Publicis that is one of the largest media agencies in the world. In April, Starcom signed a multiyear deal with Twitter to combine some of the resources that they both use for measuring and tracking data and advertising. That deal was estimated to be hundreds of millions of dollars.

Last year, revenue at Publicis increased nearly 14 percent to $8.8 billion, while revenue at Omnicom increased 2.5 percent to $14.2 billion.

The combined company could be jointly run by Mr. Lévy, who has been with Publicis since 1987, and John Wren, who has led Omnicom since 1997, according to the people with knowledge of the talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the deal was not completed. Mr. Lévy, 71, has been expected to name a successor since last year.

In a report on Saturday, Brian Wieser, a senior research analyst at Pivotal Research Group, said a merger would be “highly favorable” for the entire ad industry, and “negative for media owners in most traditional media,” because those companies would lose negotiating power.

Some analysts and industry players speculated whether the United States Justice Department would approve such a merger or whether the French government would bristle at a company that was not run by a French national.

But antitrust concerns could be eased if the new company positions itself less as a conglomerate of ad agencies and more of a data company competing with businesses like I.B.M. and Facebook, Mr. Wieser wrote. He added that maintaining Mr. Lévy at the helm or ensuring that a board was dominated by French nationals might be enough to assuage the French government.

News of the talks was first reported by Bloomberg.

Michael de la Merced contributed reporting.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Disruptions: Ride-Sharing Upstarts Challenge Taxi Industry

Uber, like the other services, does not have its own fleet of cars. The company teams with existing luxury car services and acts as a digital dispatcher for people booking a car through its mobile app.Richard Perry/The New York Times Uber, like the other services, does not have its own fleet of cars. The company teams with existing luxury car services and acts as a digital dispatcher for people booking a car through its mobile app.

Last week, when I arrived at the Los Angeles airport on a flight from San Francisco, I made my way to the taxi stand and waited 10 minutes for a cab. Just as I was about to hop in, the driver and the dispatcher began fighting over whose job it was to put my suitcase in the trunk. After a few minutes, I dealt with the bag myself. We then drove off in a filthy taxi that smelled like cigarette smoke and had suspension so old that it felt as if it had square wheels.

This made me think once again: the taxi industry is ripe for disruption.

Several companies in Silicon Valley — like Uber, Lyft and Sidecar — are acting on that very thought.

Uber, like the other services, does not have its own fleet of cars. The company teams with existing luxury car services and acts as a digital dispatcher for people booking a car through its mobile app.

Although Uber determines price the same way taxis do, calculating fares by time and distance, the service can cost 50 percent more than a normal city cab. Another service offered by Uber, called UberX, offers passengers a lower-cost ride in hybrid cars and is comparably priced to traditional taxis.

But companies like Uber are continually confronting the obstacle of entrenched government bureaucracy, resistant unions of taxi drivers and dispatchers, and overlapping and sometimes conflicting systems of state and city regulation.

The latest roadblocks have come up in Los Angeles, where Uber began offering its service in March.

Travis Kalanick, the company’s co-founder and chief executive, said it received a cease-and-desist letter from the city of Los Angeles, “even though this is not under their jurisdiction.” He added, “The taxi industry feels it is getting disrupted and they are doing whatever they can with their lobbying relationships to try and stop us.”

The letter, issued by the Los Angeles Transportation Department, says that Uber is “operating an unlicensed commercial transportation service” in the city. Jonathan Hui, an agency spokesman, wrote in an e-mail that it was working with the mayor’s office “to determine ways to address ride-sharing companies,” but he declined to comment further.

William Rouse, general manager of Yellow Cab in Los Angeles, one of the largest taxi companies in the city, and president of the Taxicab, Limousine and Paratransit Association, a trade group, said that making sure taxis were officially licensed was a matter of public safety.

“Our roadways are a scarce resource,” he said. “When you have an oversupply of taxi cabs, you have more congestion, depressed driver incomes and poor service. It’s also an issue of public safety, where drivers aren’t insured and there are felons driving some of these ride-sharing apps’ cars.”

Uber and other ride-sharing apps say that all their cars are insured over the required taxi insurance limits and that drivers must undergo stringent background checks.

“This isn’t about safety,” said John Zimmer, co-founder of Lyft, which also received a cease-and-desist letter from Los Angeles regulators. Mr. Zimmer said he believed the real opposition from taxi companies was not about customer safety, but fear of competition.

Mr. Zimmer also pointed out that state regulators had approved his service.

The California Public Utilities Commission, he said, lets it operate “because we go above and beyond all of their guidelines.”

Uber has been dragged through regulatory hurdles in New York City since its introduction there in 2011. But last month Uber had a victory of sorts, winning a ruling allowing it to operate in Cambridge, Mass. This came after city officials, at the behest of local taxi companies, tried to ban Uber even though state regulators had already approved the operations of such ride-sharing services statewide.

The Federal Trade Commission has also recently issued a statement supporting the services; the agency said trying to snuff out ride-sharing apps would stifle competition and could hurt consumers.

The controversy in Los Angeles is par for the course for start-ups that have come up against regulators. They have been sued or received cease-and-desist letters from almost every city they operate in.

When it comes to protecting customers on pricing and overcharging, taxi regulation makes sense. But in some instances, regulatory bodies have done more harm than good. In 2009, for example, more than 30 people in Washington, including at least one city official, were indicted on bribery charges during talks of regulatory change.

Some lobbying groups, meanwhile, are using fear tactics. In March, Mr. Rouse’s taxi industry group issued a news release warning that companies like Uber and Lyft were “rogue transportation apps” and a “threat to public safety.” The release said that arguments involving payment “could turn violent,” but offered no examples.

Mr. Kalanick of Uber said cities should simply let the customer decide. “The taxi groups are so protected through these regulations that they do not have to offer a better service to customers.”

Mr. Rouse acknowledged that cab companies needed to do a better job, and said he was working with cabdrivers to increase quality of service. But he said taxi groups “will continue to advocate for law enforcement against these ride-sharing apps.”

Although the services do not share figures on how popular they are, the opposition suggests they are posing a real threat. As for me, I’m glad when I have a choice.

To get to the San Francisco airport, before my recent flight to Los Angeles, I called an Uber car. When the driver picked me up, he was nervous about taking me to the airport, he said, because its police were ticketing Uber drivers. The service is allowed in San Francisco, but the airport police follow different rules.

“I can take you,” the driver earnestly said. “But we will have to pretend to be related so I don’t get a ticket.”

When we pulled up to the airport, he got out of the car with great ceremony, handed me my bags and followed his script. “Have a safe flight!” he said, giving me a big hug while peering sideways for signs of the law. “I’ll see you soon.”

E-mail: bilton@nytimes.com

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

DealBook: Detroit Gap Reveals Industry Dispute on Pension Math

Many in Detroit were alarmed recently when, seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in the city's pension system.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesMany in Detroit were alarmed recently when, seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in the city’s pension system.

Until mid-June, there was one ray of hope in Detroit’s gathering storm: For all the city’s problems, its pension fund was in pretty good shape. If the city went under, its thousands of retired clerks, police officers, bus drivers and other workers would still be safe.

Then came bad news. Seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in Detroit’s pension system, courtesy of calculations by a firm hired by the city’s emergency manager.

Retirees were shaken. Pension trustees said it must be a trick. The holders of some of Detroit’s bonds realized in shock that if the city filed for bankruptcy — as it finally did on Thursday — their claims would have even more competition for whatever small pot of money is available.

But Detroit’s pension revelation is nothing new to many people who run pension plans for a living, the math-and-statistics whizzes known as actuaries. For several years, little noticed in the rest of the world, their staid profession has been fighting over how to calculate the value, in today’s dollars, of pensions that will be paid in the future.

It may sound arcane, but the stakes for the country run into the trillions of dollars. Depending on which side ultimately wins the argument, every state, city, county and school district may find out that, like Detroit, it has promised more to its retirees than it ever intended or disclosed. That does not mean all those places will declare bankruptcy, but many have more than likely promised their workers more than they can reasonably expect to deliver.

The problem has nothing to do with the usual padding and pay-to-play scandals that can plague pension funds. Rather, it is the possibility that a fundamental error has for decades been ingrained into actuarial standards of practice so that certain calculations are always done incorrectly. Over time, this mistake, if that is what it is, has worked its way into generally accepted accounting principles, been overlooked by outside auditors and even affected state and municipal credit ratings, although the ratings firms have lately been trying to correct for it.

Since the 1990s, the error has been making pensions look cheaper than they truly are, so if a city really has gone beyond its means, no one can see it.

“When the taxpayers find out, they’re going to be absolutely furious,” said Jeremy Gold, an actuary and economist who for years has called on his profession to correct what he calls “the biases embedded in present actuarial principles.” In 2000, well before the current flurry of pension-related municipal bankruptcies, he wrote his doctoral dissertation on how and why conventional pension calculations run afoul of modern economic principles.

Mr. Gold made his prediction about taxpayer fury in an interview a number of years ago in which he also explained why he had chosen his topic. He said he hoped to help put a stop to the errors he saw his colleagues making before pension problems that were already starting to brew then boiled over and a furious public heaped blame, scorn and legal liability on the profession.

When a lender calculates the value of a mortgage, or a trader sets the price of a bond, each looks at the payments scheduled in the future and translates them into today’s dollars, using a commonplace calculation called discounting. By extension, it might seem that an actuary calculating a city’s pension obligations would look at the scheduled future payments to retirees and discount them to today’s dollars.

But that is not what happens. To calculate a city’s pension liabilities, an actuary instead projects all the contributions the city will probably have to make to the pension fund over time. Many assumptions go into this projection, including an assumption that returns on the investments made by the pension fund will cover most of the plan’s costs. The greater the average annual investment returns, the less the city will presumably have to contribute. Pension plan trustees set the rate of return, usually between 7 percent and 8 percent.

In addition, actuaries “smooth” the numbers, to keep big swings in the financial markets from making the pension contributions gyrate year to year. These methods, actuarial watchdogs say, build a strong bias into the numbers. Not only can they make unsustainable pension plans look fine, they say, but they distort the all-important instructions actuaries give their clients every year on how much money to set aside to pay all benefits in the future.

If the critics are right about that, it means even the cities that diligently follow their actuaries’ instructions, contributing the required amounts each year, are falling behind, and they don’t even know it.

These critics advocate discounting pension liabilities based on a low-risk rate of return, akin to one for a very safe bond.

In the years since his doctoral research, Mr. Gold and like-minded actuaries and economists have been presenting their ideas in professional forums and in scholarly papers crammed with equations and letters of the Greek alphabet. They have won converts, but so far no changes in the actuarial standards. Their theoretical arguments tend to fly over the head of the typical taxpayer.

Year after year there has been consistent resistance from the trustees of public pensions, the actuarial firms that advise them and the unions that represent public workers. The unions suspect hidden agendas, like cutting their benefits. The actuaries say they comply fully with all actuarial standards of practice and pronouncements of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board. When state and local governments go looking for a new pension actuary, they sometimes post ads saying that candidates who favor new ways of calculating liabilities need not apply.

A few years ago, with the debate still raging and cities staggering through the recession, one top professional body, the Society of Actuaries, gathered expert opinion and realized that public pension plans had come to pose the single largest reputational risk to the profession. A Public Plans Reputational Risk Task Force was convened. It held some meetings, but last year, the matter was shifted to a new body, something called the Blue Ribbon Panel, which was composed not of actuaries but public policy figures from a number of disciplines. Panelists include Richard Ravitch, a former lieutenant governor of New York; Bradley Belt, a former executive director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation; and Robert North, the actuary who shepherds New York City’s five big public pension plans.

This project has drawn fire from a large number of public pension officials. They recently wrote the Society of Actuaries a joint letter, urging it to reconstitute the Blue Ribbon Panel by adding more people “who can provide insight” into the many benefits of the current method, and expressed great concern about switching to a new one that could cause confusion and volatility. Of possible interest to the bondholders and taxpayers of Detroit, they also said that as fiduciaries they were required to “put the interest of all plan participants and beneficiaries above their own interests or those of any third parties.”

Much of the theoretical argument for retaining current methods is based on the belief that states and cities, unlike companies, cannot go out of business. That means public pension systems have an infinite investment horizon and can pull out of down markets if given enough time.

As Detroit has shown, that time can run out.

Monica Davey contributed reporting.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

DealBook: Detroit Gap Reveals Industry Dispute on Pension Math

Many in Detroit were alarmed recently when, seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in the city's pension system.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesMany in Detroit were alarmed recently when, seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in the city’s pension system.

Until mid-June, there was one ray of hope in Detroit’s gathering storm: For all the city’s problems, its pension fund was in pretty good shape. If the city went under, its thousands of retired clerks, police officers, bus drivers and other workers would still be safe.

Then came bad news. Seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in Detroit’s pension system, courtesy of calculations by a firm hired by the city’s emergency manager.

Retirees were shaken. Pension trustees said it must be a trick. The holders of some of Detroit’s bonds realized in shock that if the city filed for bankruptcy — as it finally did on Thursday — their claims would have even more competition for whatever small pot of money is available.

But Detroit’s pension revelation is nothing new to many people who run pension plans for a living, the math-and-statistics whizzes known as actuaries. For several years, little noticed in the rest of the world, their staid profession has been fighting over how to calculate the value, in today’s dollars, of pensions that will be paid in the future.

It may sound arcane, but the stakes for the country run into the trillions of dollars. Depending on which side ultimately wins the argument, every state, city, county and school district may find out that, like Detroit, it has promised more to its retirees than it ever intended or disclosed. That does not mean all those places will declare bankruptcy, but many have more than likely promised their workers more than they can reasonably expect to deliver.

The problem has nothing to do with the usual padding and pay-to-play scandals that can plague pension funds. Rather, it is the possibility that a fundamental error has for decades been ingrained into actuarial standards of practice so that certain calculations are always done incorrectly. Over time, this mistake, if that is what it is, has worked its way into generally accepted accounting principles, been overlooked by outside auditors and even affected state and municipal credit ratings, although the ratings firms have lately been trying to correct for it.

Since the 1990s, the error has been making pensions look cheaper than they truly are, so if a city really has gone beyond its means, no one can see it.

“When the taxpayers find out, they’re going to be absolutely furious,” said Jeremy Gold, an actuary and economist who for years has called on his profession to correct what he calls “the biases embedded in present actuarial principles.” In 2000, well before the current flurry of pension-related municipal bankruptcies, he wrote his doctoral dissertation on how and why conventional pension calculations run afoul of modern economic principles.

Mr. Gold made his prediction about taxpayer fury in an interview a number of years ago in which he also explained why he had chosen his topic. He said he hoped to help put a stop to the errors he saw his colleagues making before pension problems that were already starting to brew then boiled over and a furious public heaped blame, scorn and legal liability on the profession.

When a lender calculates the value of a mortgage, or a trader sets the price of a bond, each looks at the payments scheduled in the future and translates them into today’s dollars, using a commonplace calculation called discounting. By extension, it might seem that an actuary calculating a city’s pension obligations would look at the scheduled future payments to retirees and discount them to today’s dollars.

But that is not what happens. To calculate a city’s pension liabilities, an actuary instead projects all the contributions the city will probably have to make to the pension fund over time. Many assumptions go into this projection, including an assumption that returns on the investments made by the pension fund will cover most of the plan’s costs. The greater the average annual investment returns, the less the city will presumably have to contribute. Pension plan trustees set the rate of return, usually between 7 percent and 8 percent.

In addition, actuaries “smooth” the numbers, to keep big swings in the financial markets from making the pension contributions gyrate year to year. These methods, actuarial watchdogs say, build a strong bias into the numbers. Not only can they make unsustainable pension plans look fine, they say, but they distort the all-important instructions actuaries give their clients every year on how much money to set aside to pay all benefits in the future.

If the critics are right about that, it means even the cities that diligently follow their actuaries’ instructions, contributing the required amounts each year, are falling behind, and they don’t even know it.

These critics advocate discounting pension liabilities based on a low-risk rate of return, akin to one for a very safe bond.

In the years since his doctoral research, Mr. Gold and like-minded actuaries and economists have been presenting their ideas in professional forums and in scholarly papers crammed with equations and letters of the Greek alphabet. They have won converts, but so far no changes in the actuarial standards. Their theoretical arguments tend to fly over the head of the typical taxpayer.

Year after year there has been consistent resistance from the trustees of public pensions, the actuarial firms that advise them and the unions that represent public workers. The unions suspect hidden agendas, like cutting their benefits. The actuaries say they comply fully with all actuarial standards of practice and pronouncements of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board. When state and local governments go looking for a new pension actuary, they sometimes post ads saying that candidates who favor new ways of calculating liabilities need not apply.

A few years ago, with the debate still raging and cities staggering through the recession, one top professional body, the Society of Actuaries, gathered expert opinion and realized that public pension plans had come to pose the single largest reputational risk to the profession. A Public Plans Reputational Risk Task Force was convened. It held some meetings, but last year, the matter was shifted to a new body, something called the Blue Ribbon Panel, which was composed not of actuaries but public policy figures from a number of disciplines. Panelists include Richard Ravitch, a former lieutenant governor of New York; Bradley Belt, a former executive director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation; and Robert North, the actuary who shepherds New York City’s five big public pension plans.

This project has drawn fire from a large number of public pension officials. They recently wrote the Society of Actuaries a joint letter, urging it to reconstitute the Blue Ribbon Panel by adding more people “who can provide insight” into the many benefits of the current method, and expressed great concern about switching to a new one that could cause confusion and volatility. Of possible interest to the bondholders and taxpayers of Detroit, they also said that as fiduciaries they were required to “put the interest of all plan participants and beneficiaries above their own interests or those of any third parties.”

Much of the theoretical argument for retaining current methods is based on the belief that states and cities, unlike companies, cannot go out of business. That means public pension systems have an infinite investment horizon and can pull out of down markets if given enough time.

As Detroit has shown, that time can run out.

Monica Davey contributed reporting.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

On the Road: Hotel Industry Deals With Its Online Critics

Now there are scores of major online travel and social media sites sprouting hundreds of thousands of customer reviews. And the hotel industry is frantically trying to stay on top of the commotion.

What appeared to be one such effort by a hotel executive drew attention last week. Tnooz.com, a site that specializes in travel technology, reported that an executive based in Sydney, Australia, with the worldwide hotel chain Accor, had anonymously posted more than 100 reviews on TripAdvisor.com, the consumer travel site that features millions of customer reviews of travel services, including hotels around the world.

The reviews of various Accor hotels were positive. A few took shots at competing hotels. Tnooz said that the executive, Peter Hook, admitted posting the reviews in a statement in which he explained that most of his reviews were for tourism activities and restaurants rather than just hotels. I could not reach Mr. Hook for comment.

Accor hotels around the world include the brands Sofitel, Novotel, Pullman, Mercure and Ibis. Kerrie Hannaford, an Accor spokeswoman, told me Friday she was unaware of the controversy involving the anonymous reviews. She did not respond to further calls for comment.

Knowing how busy most hotel managers are, I’m somewhat sympathetic to the pressures they have come under in recent years because of the tsunami of online reviews. Many hotel companies expect managers to respond personally to negative reviews, a time-consuming chore.

Olery, a company that offers brand reputation management for hotels, said in a report that about 78 percent of travelers used online reviews to help decide which hotel to book.

As the importance of online customer evaluations grows, an increasing number of hotel reviews are suspect. Big travel review sites like TripAdvisor say they try to monitor reviews to weed out the ones from customers clearly acting in bad faith, or from competitors simply out to torpedo a rival.

One global hotel company, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, not long ago created its own review system open to members of its loyalty program, called The Club. It allows review privileges only to members who have had more than one stay at a given hotel. Still, the reviews are open to honest evaluation, including criticism, said Paul Kerr, chief executive of Small Luxury Hotels, which represents more than 520 boutique luxury hotels in about 70 countries around the world.

Members overwhelmingly say that reviews are an important consideration in booking a hotel, he said. But for his group’s hotels, which do about 25 percent of their trade in business travel, it is important to cull the rampaging herd, he added.

“I didn’t believe that TripAdvisor provides a necessarily very good indicator of quality for high-end hotels because some of the people writing reviews may have only been to a luxury hotel once or twice, and don’t really know what they are talking about,” he said.

That can cut both ways, because an uninformed rave has minimal value to a discerning customer. “Someone might say, ‘Oooh, it’s so great; they have these fluffy towels’ — but that’s the sort of thing you expect in a luxury hotel,” he said. “On the other hand, you can get some unfair and unfounded criticism from people who don’t understand what a luxury hotel is about.”

He added: “We have about 450 reviews at about 250 of our hotels now. The customers love it. The hotels don’t. Some hotels don’t understand that it’s so important to have these reviews because it increases your rankings in Google. Your search-engine utilization is much better when it’s honest and transparent.”

I compared online reviews, chosen at random from the TripAdvisor and Small Luxury Hotels Web sites, for two of the group’s high-end hotels, the Huntington in San Francisco and Le Pavillon de la Reine in Paris.

Both hotels got mostly rave reviews, many using the word “superb.” The few criticisms were similar, but different in tone.

A review of the Huntington on the group’s Web site said, “I didn’t enjoy that Wi-Fi was charged ... really? Also, I thought the room could have used fresh paint, and the furniture looked a bit tired.” On TripAdvisor, an otherwise favorable review of Pavillon said, “Our room was in need of a thorough update.” It added, “The bathroom makeup mirror was held to the stem by duct tape.”

Mr. Kerr said that there was genuine value in providing reliable reviews, including those with criticism, for discerning and knowledgeable customers — even on a Web site managed by an organization that represents hotels, not the general public. “Our customers are not stupid people at all. They know what it’s all about,” he said.

On the other hand, he added, there is a desire for perspective. “If a hotel has only one review and it’s not a great one, that’s really not fair to that hotel,” he said. “So to make sure there are balanced reviews, we’ve got to have at least five reviews of a hotel before we put it all up on the system.”

DealBook: Urenco, Powerhouse of the Uranium Enrichment Industry, Wants Out

An inspection at what will be Urenco's largest enrichment center, now under construction in Eunice, N.M.UrencoAn inspection at what will be Urenco’s largest enrichment center, now under construction in Eunice, N.M.

CAPENHURST, England — The first thing you notice when entering Building E23 on a tightly guarded site here in northwest England is the loud tick-tock. The sound resonates throughout the long, low-slung building where, behind secured doors, sit row upon row of tall thin tubes.

That ticking means the building’s radiation detection system is working — crucial comfort. Inside each cylinder is a centrifuge, spinning a gaseous form of uranium to give it the atomic boost it needs to be used as nuclear reactor fuel.

The company that operates this uranium enrichment center, Urenco, is the world leader in the field. It is also plumply profitable. So why are its owners eager to sell it?

The answer, as with many things involving nuclear power, is a combination of economics, geopolitics and the Promethean prospect of an energy source that is as potentially green and abundant as deadly dangerous.

Urenco was formed by treaty in 1971 when Britain, West Germany and the Netherlands decided for strategic and business reasons to combine their uranium enrichment programs. The company is still owned by the British and Dutch governments, with one-third each, and with the German third held jointly by two big utility companies, E.On and RWE.

Urenco now has four enrichment plants — in Britain, the Netherlands and Germany — selling fuel for civilian energy purposes around the world, capturing nearly a third of the global market. It is also heavily investing in an American centrifuge complex in Eunice, N.M., that will eventually be its largest plant.

“Over the years we have developed generations of these machines,” said Helmut Engelbrecht, Urenco’s chief executive in a telephone interview. “If you do something continuously you always improve.”

Besides fuel, Urenco’s centrifuges spin off fairly good money: revenue of 1.6 billion euros, or $2.1 billion last year, yielding earnings of 402 million euros, for a profit margin of 25 percent. And its order book stands at 18 billion euros, which translates to at least 10 years of steady work.

Analysts estimate Urenco’s market value at about 10 billion euros. For all that momentum, though, the company is at a crossroads. Growth may flatten in the next couple of years, executives say, mainly because Japan — a major user of nuclear power until the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi disaster — has shut down its reactors, taking about 10 percent of the world’s nuclear energy generating capacity offline. And the Japanese have stockpiled substantial amounts of fuel for the day, if ever, that those reactors go back into operation.

The British government, intent on cleaning up its budget by selling state-owned enterprises, said in March that it had hired Morgan Stanley to look into disposing of all or part of its Urenco stake. In some respects Urenco is an easier business to sell than, say, the Royal Mail, because it has an internationally marketable product and a relatively small work force — about 1,400 employees.

Urenco's New Mexico facility. The company sells nearly a third of the world’s reactor fuel; it had $2.1 billion in revenue in 2012.UrencoUrenco’s New Mexico facility. The company sells nearly a third of the world’s reactor fuel; it had $2.1 billion in revenue in 2012.

The German utilities E.On and RWE have hired Bank of America as their adviser. With the German government’s having decided to get out of the nuclear industry in 2011 after Fukushima, the sale of their Urenco stakes would help the power companies beef up their thin balance sheets.

A sale became more likely Thursday, when the Dutch government said it wanted to sell its shares, as long as “the public interest in terms of nonproliferation, nuclear safety and supply security” could be safeguarded.

A person close to planning, who insisted on anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter, said if things went smoothly a sale might occur either late this year or in the first half of 2014.

“Nuclear strategies have changed,” said Michael Kruse, a consultant on nuclear issues for the management consultant Arthur D. Little in Frankfurt. “Governments no longer think they need to be in this business,” he said, “and utilities in several countries want out after Fukushima.”

People in the industry say the most likely buyers would be companies already in the industry that might want to offer clients fuel along with nuclear power stations. Areva, a French giant, might fit that bill. So might Toshiba of Japan, which is studying building nuclear plants in Britain. Still, “there are in my view not many companies that can buy Urenco,” Mr. Kruse said.

Urenco’s chief executive, Mr. Engelbrecht, in a presentation to analysts in March, declined to discuss a possible sale of the company, saying he would leave that to the shareholders. But he argued that fast-growing emerging economies would take up the slack left by Japan.

Already, he noted, China is in the midst of a nuclear plant building boom, and India is also seriously pursuing nuclear power. In the Middle East, Urenco has a contract to enrich uranium for the plants in Abu Dhabi being built by South Korean contractors. Countries that are seeing 10 percent to 15 percent increases in electricity demand and that have major air pollution problems “are all betting on nuclear, and that is where we believe the future of our business will be,” Mr. Engelbrecht said.

The company has 50 customers in 17 countries, which it denotes with little plaques on a wall in the enrichment center’s entranceway. The honorees include the Indian Point nuclear plant in Buchanan, N.Y.; Wolf Creek in Burlington, Kan., and the Olkiluoto plant on an island off western Finland.

Even if the potential buyers are a small pool, analysts say that buying into Urenco would present a rare opportunity. Urenco’s centrifuge technology, honed over several generations of machines, is considered the most efficient way to enrich uranium.

Urenco plants receive shipments of uranium hexafluoride, a granular substance derived from uranium ore, which is turned into gas by heating it. The gas is then piped into the centrifuges which use their spinning power to separate out the lighter and more reactive uranium 235 isotopes. When the gas is cooled again, it settles out as a solid resembling grains of sugar.

Urenco’s process increases the proportion of U235, raising it from a starting point of about 0.7 percent to end up about 4 percent — a suitable level for reactor fuel, but only a small fraction of the concentration needed to make a nuclear weapon.

Urenco’s enriched uranium is put in canisters that then go to a fuel fabricator, where it is converted into pellets and loaded into fuel rods which are then delivered to the power plants.

The centrifuges rarely stop at the Capenhurst plant, which sprawls over about 170 acres in what has long been a munitions testing site surrounded by cow pastures and farm ponds. The newest group of cascades — as the array of centrifuges is known — in the Capenhurst building was installed 15 years ago and “has never been brought to rest,” said Geoff Owens, a Urenco engineer.

Areva, of France, which has about 10 percent of the world market for nuclear fuel sales, began switching over to Urenco’s technology in the mid-2000s for its uranium enrichment. Areva’s and Urenco’s owners each have a 50 percent stake in a company called Enrichment Technology, based in Almelo, the Netherlands, that develops and makes the centrifuges.

It is very difficult for competitors to gain a foothold in Urenco’s business. The details of the technology are closely guarded, and the uranium trade is tightly controlled and regulated. “There are massive barriers to entry,” said Harold Hutchinson, an analyst at Investec in London.

Urenco produces the steady, long-run returns that might be valued by pension funds and private equity groups. But worries that the wrong people may gain access to Urenco’s world-leading technology will probably mean that the shareholders — and the British, Dutch and German governments — will be highly selective about who can buy stakes.

While Asian or Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are said to be among those interested, only companies from North America, western Europe, Japan, or possibly, South Korea, are likely to pass muster, people in the industry say.

“There are an awful lot of security concerns which arise around these types of businesses,” said Fiona Reilly, who heads the nuclear industry practice at Norton Rose, a law firm in London.

Besides potential candidates like Areva and Toshiba, another shopper might be Cameco, a big Canadian uranium mining outfit. It has shown interest in working with Urenco in the past and already uses a plant in Preston, England, that turns refined uranium ore into the uranium hexafluoride that could serve as feedstock for Urenco’s nearby Capenhurst complex.

“Enrichment is a potential growth area for us,” Gord Struthers, a Cameco spokesman said in an e-mail, while declining to comment on whether an offer might be imminent. “We are watching what happens with Urenco closely.”

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Dassault Approaches Crossroad in Fractured Jet Industry

“This is a living tool,” Mr. Camps said, as an assistant rotated the projected image with a few keystrokes. “This is it. There are no blueprints.”

Dassault Aviation, the French maker of the Falcon series of business jets as well as the Rafale military fighter, first started to dispense with traditional paper drawings and physical scale mock-ups a decade ago, migrating to an all-digital design system that has since been adopted globally by the aerospace industry, as well as by automakers and other manufacturers. It is an innovation that the company — still controlled by the heirs of Marcel Dassault, a pioneer of France’s modern aerospace industry — is fiercely proud.

Despite its broader influence, Dassault, while respectably profitable, is fighting to maintain its footing after the financial crisis eroded demand for flashy business jets, coupled with deep, austerity-driven cuts in European defense budgets. In this environment, some industry analysts wonder how much longer the company can continue to go it alone in an increasingly competitive global market.

“France, and especially Dassault, are unique in the world of aerospace,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Va. “They don’t outsource much outside of France.”

Dassault is dealing with a confluence of issues.

Of Dassault’s 11,600 employees worldwide, more than two-thirds are based in France, where hourly manufacturing pay is 20 percent higher than in the United States in dollar terms and labor laws are notoriously inflexible.

High-tech manufacturers face added political pressure to resist moving coveted skilled jobs to less costly markets. While the company’s roots are in military aircraft, private jets have been its mainstay for decades, generating 70 percent of its 3.9 billion euros, or $5.1 billion, in revenue last year. Demand plunged with the global financial crisis that hit in late 2008, diminishing the global jet set as bank credit tightened and private planes became a symbol of excess.

Dassault says new orders have begun to recover, but Éric Trappier, Dassault’s chief executive, still describes the market as “convalescent.” The company wants to deliver 70 Falcon jets this year, up from 66 in 2012.

Dassault’s Rafale order book has been almost entirely dependent on the French government, which has so far ordered about 200 fighters — of which a little more than half have been delivered, at a rate of around 10 a year. Last month, however, the government of François Hollande slashed its commitment to the Rafale, capping France’s total projected fleet at 225, down from 286. The cuts are part of an austerity budget that aims to limit overall French military spending.

As such, Dassault faces intense pressure to find export customers for the Rafale. It won a critical victory in early 2012 after India selected it as the preferred bidder for a $10 billion order of 126 planes, beating out Eurofighter as well as its American rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin. But talks to complete the deal drag on. Analysts say Dassault’s prospects in other international fighter contests — in Brazil, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere — look grim.

“I don’t have too many doubts that Dassault can continue to flourish in business jets,” said Sash Tusa, an aerospace analyst at Echelon Research and Advisory in London. “But I don’t think it has got the ability to maintain its combat jet capability without French government commitment and French government funding.”

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Service Industry Expanded in April, but at Slower Pace

WASHINGTON (AP) — A survey of United States service companies showed that the industry expanded at a slower pace in April than in March, as companies reported less business activity and could not raise their prices.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Friday that its index of nonmanufacturing activity fell to 53.1 in April from 54.4 in March. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. The report measures growth in industries that cover 90 percent of the work force, including retail, construction, health care and financial services.

The decline in the overall index suggested that some service companies may be starting to see less consumer demand, in part because of higher Social Security taxes.

April’s weakness was largely caused by a steep drop in a measure of prices, to 51.2 from 55.9 in March. Nearly 70 percent of the companies surveyed said they did not change their prices last month, while 10 percent reduced them.

A measure of business activity also declined. Still, a gauge of new orders was mostly unchanged, and businesses stepped up restocking, typically a sign that they expect consumer spending to pick up.

Growth in the service industry depends largely on consumers, whose spending drives roughly 70 percent of economic activity. Americans increased their spending from January through March at the most rapid pace in more than two years, despite the increase in Social Security taxes that kicked in on Jan. 1.

And other trends may offset some of the impact of the taxes this year. Consumers have cut their debts. Rising home values and stock prices have increased household wealth And average gas prices nationwide have dropped 27 cents from their peak this year to $3.52 a gallon, according to AAA.

In manufacturing, orders fell 4 percent in March, the largest amount in seven months, but a crucial category that signals business investment plans increased. The drop in factory orders reflected a plunge in the volatile category of commercial aircraft, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. Orders were up 1.9 percent in February. But in core capital goods, a category considered a proxy for business investment plans, orders rose 0.9 percent after a 4.8 percent decline in February and a 6.7 percent surge in January.

Weaker economies overseas and the impact of across-the-board government spending cuts have made businesses more cautious, dampening demand for manufactured goods. But even with the March decline, total orders stood at $467.3 billion, 43 percent above the recession low in March 2009.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

DealBook: Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Plans to Expand Its Focus

Wall Street’s self-regulator is planning to exercise some new muscle.

Richard G. Ketchum, the head of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, said in an interview on Tuesday that he would ramp up scrutiny of high-speed trading and a batch of complex products. Finra, Mr. Ketchum said, would take aim at so-called leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, along with the potential conflicts that brokerage firms face in pitching their own investments over rivals’ products.

“We’re going to be very focused on conflicts of interest,” said Mr. Ketchum, the chairman and chief executive of Finra. In a statement, Firna added that it would “pursue potential cross-market abuses and refine its surveillance patterns based on new threat scenarios and regulatory intelligence.”

The expanded focus comes as Finra announced on Tuesday that it filed more than 1,500 enforcement actions against financial firms and brokers in 2012, an all-time record for the regulator. Finra, which barred nearly 300 people from the industry, levied more than $100 million in penalties.

“It’s nice to see an upward trajectory,” Mr. Ketchum said.

A private, nonprofit organization, Finra monitors 600,000-plus stockbrokers. The group’s enforcement arm has struggled to shake the perception that brokers and their firms, which pay for Finra’s operations through fees and dispatch representatives to sit on the board, have muzzled the watchdog.

But Finra, Mr. Ketchum noted, is now tracking bigger game. He highlighted the range of cases filed last year, a collection of actions against some of the biggest names on Wall Street. Firna last year sanctioned Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and UBS, among others, for improper sales tactics. Goldman Sachs paid an $11 million fine for failing to keep an eye on its research analysts.

The agency’s enforcement unit, run by J. Bradley Bennett, also waded into the minutiae of Wall Street products, filing cases involving structured investments and leveraged exchange-traded funds. Finra said on Tuesday that the unit could strike a more aggressive tone in 2013, investigating other products and the high-speed trading industry.

“What I like about the cases we brought is the focus on complex products,” Mr. Ketchum said.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Advertising: Women and the Changing Face of the Industry

For instance, the Radio Advertising Bureau and the Radio Creative Fund presented their 2012 Radio Mercury Awards on Wednesday as Advertising Week continued. The National Advertising Division of the Council of Better Business Bureaus held its annual conference on Monday and Tuesday. The Advertising Club of New York held its Multicultural Summit on Thursday.

And Advertising Women of New York marked the 100th anniversary of its founding, as the League of Advertising Women of New York, with two events on Thursday: a breakfast, attended by about 200 people, and a luncheon, attended by more than 500.

“When AWNY was founded, women could not vote,” Laura Desmond, chief executive of the Starcom MediaVest Group unit of the Publicis Groupe, said in introductory remarks at the breakfast.

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The organization began in 1912 with 40 members, she said, growing to 550 in 1962 and more than 1,700 now. “I would like to see, 10 years from now, that number double,” Ms. Desmond said, to help AWNY “serve as a catalyst for women in the communications field.”

“The legacy, 10 years from now, 25 years from now, is in this room,” she added. “We have to keep paying it forward.”

Ms. Desmond then joined a panel discussing such questions as whether female executives were more reluctant to take prime roles in industry conferences than their male counterparts.

“I don’t think there’s a lot of patience for blah-blah” among women, Ms. Desmond said. And when it comes to talking about their achievements, she added, “women have a tendency to say, ‘I didn’t do that; I enabled the team.’ ”

Anne M. Finucane, global strategy and marketing officer at Bank of America, looked at the other side of the coin. “I think men mostly want to be keynote speakers” at industry events, she said, rather than panelists.

An unscientific sampling of the lineups of panels this week from the organizers of Advertising Week suggested that efforts were being made to recruit women to join the male panelists. (It was, it seemed, less difficult to find female panelists than panelists who were black or Hispanic, unless the panels were about multicultural marketing.)

For example, a panel on Thursday billed as a C.E.O. Summit included Laura Lang, chief executive of the Time Inc. division of Time Warner, among its five members. Ms. Lang spoke about the challenges she faces in revamping the mainstay Time Inc. print publications for an increasingly digitally oriented audience.

There needs to be more integration of video and print material, Ms. Lang said, to reflect the demand among consumers for content “anywhere, anytime.”

The advertising system of agencies, marketers and media is “underestimating the profound change” in media habits among consumers, she added, particularly as they embrace mobility.

And while print will “always be around,” Ms. Lang said, “you’ll never know” what consumers will choose as their next media must-have, “and we have to get really comfortable with that.” She cited as an example data gathered by Time Inc. showing that the Web site of Real Simple magazine now gets more referrals from a social media newcomer, Pinterest, than from Facebook.

Apropos of Facebook, and high-ranking female executives, Carolyn Everson, vice president for global marketing solutions at Facebook, took part in a panel on Thursday about innovation in digital publishing and advertising. The central themes were data, mobile devices and what is known as native advertising, or improving the interaction of ads and content.

Of Facebook’s one billion users, a milestone announced on Thursday, 600 million visit Facebook primarily through mobile devices, Ms. Everson said. In some markets, like Southeast Asia and Africa, she added, mobile devices are the main way people use Facebook.

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It would be a mistake, Ms. Everson said, for marketers to place mobile advertising in a separate silo as they did with digital advertising when the Internet rose to prominence.

“We need the creative agencies to embrace this as a new canvas,” she said, referring to mobile.

Of course, the best-laid plans of mice, men and women can go awry. A panel on Thursday that was devoted to inventive initiatives among marketers was to have been composed of a woman, from Puma, and two men, from BMW and General Electric. But the female panelist was unavailable and was replaced by a man, from the Puma agency, Kirshenbaum Bond Senecal & Partners, part of MDC Partners.