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Sunday, March 31, 2013
Some Savers in Cyprus May Lose 60 Percent
Monday, March 25, 2013
DealBook Column: A Bank Levy in Cyprus, and Why Not to Worry
Never mind.
The last 72 hours have been filled with breathless proclamations of impending disaster after the European Union and International Monetary Fund indicated that they planned to take money directly from depositors with bank accounts in Cyprus as part of a bailout of that country.
Analysts and politicians compared the bailout plan, the first to include a levy on deposits that were considered to be insured, to government-sponsored larceny, and said it would cause a run on banks across Europe, if not a full-fledged global crisis.

“The very nature of banking has been shaken to its roots with this decision, for banking depends upon trust,” Dennis Gartman, the investor, wrote in a note to his clients. “Trust that has now been shattered; torn asunder, broken … destroyed.”
Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, called the decision an “astonishing move” with “little thought of contagion to the rest of the euro zone, and indeed perhaps the world.”
Mark J. Grant, a market commentator who has been predicting an economic apocalypse in Europe for years, went so far as to compare the terms of the bailout with “rape.” He said: “Pay attention please. The European Union and the European Central Bank and the I.M.F. have just advocated the confiscation of private property for their own indulgence.”
Even President Vladimir Putin of Russia got into the debate, given that much of the deposits in Cypriot banks are Russian. “Mr. Putin said that such a decision, if adopted, would be unfair, unprofessional and dangerous,” a spokesman said.
And yet here we are. And, well, nothing bad has happened.
There have been no re-enactments of “It’s a Wonderful Life,” with people lined up around banks in Italy or Spain — considered the next dominoes, if you believe the doomsayers. The stock markets in Europe dropped less than 1 percent. In the United States, investors shrugged their shoulders, too.
Why?
While the bailout of Cyprus is a fascinating case study and raises interesting theoretical questions about moral hazard for policy wonks and talking heads, here is the reality: It is largely irrelevant to the global economy. Cyprus is tiny; its economy is smaller than Vermont’s. And the bailout is worth a paltry $13 billion, the equivalent of pocket lint for those in the bailout game.
Even the larger issue about bailing out a country by taking money from depositors — which quickly created outrage around the world — seems overblown.
The worry is that the European Union and I.M.F. have created a dangerous precedent by making depositors share in the pain of the bailout. Historically, the goal of bailouts has been to raise confidence in banks so depositors don’t flee. The approach in Cyprus is at odds with that notion, raising questions about whether future bailouts in countries like Spain and Italy — if they are needed — could affect depositors.
The alarmist thinking is that depositors will move their money from troubled banks, creating a death spiral.
Even in the United States, some commentators used the Cyprus bailout as a scare tactic about what they speculated could eventually happen here.
“An executive order issued by the president to debit taxpayer bank accounts during a future financial emergency is entirely possible,” Andrew Gause, author of “The Secret World of Money,” said in a news release.
But, in truth, the smart money knows that the bailout of Cyprus says very little about future actions.
“I would assume that anyone in Spain, Portugal or elsewhere who knows about the taxation of Cypriot depositors also would know that the Cypriot banking system is a very different animal than anywhere else in the euro zone,” Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit, wrote in a note to clients.
Mr. O’Neill of Goldman also acknowledged: “I am sure it will not set a precedent.”
Cyprus is unique. Besides being tiny, its banking system looks different from those in most other countries. Much of the big money deposited in its banks is from foreign investors, including Russians who have long been suspected of money laundering. Those investors had fair warning that Cypriot banks were troubled. The issue has been simmering for six months. But those investors left their money in the bank, in part because they were gambling that the banks would be bailed out at no cost to them. If the current plan is approved, depositors will have lost that bet.
Worse, the strategy employed in the bailout of Greece — in which bondholders of its sovereign debt were paid less than face value — will not work in Cyprus. Cyprus’s banks own much of the country’s debt, so any effort to reduce that debt by forcing debt holders to accept less would only make the banks more troubled.
Given the brutal history between Russia and so much of Europe — and speculation that so much of the money is ill gotten — it is clear why it would be so politically unpalatable to countries in the euro zone, Germany in particular, to bail out Russian depositors. And even if the move were to create a run on the banks in Cyprus, the contagion would be limited.
There is very little chance that politicians would ever choose to use the model they developed in Cyprus in a country like Italy or Spain, where a run on the banks would have such profound implications. By the way, if you’re wondering why investors left so much money in troubled Cypriot banks, here’s a trivia question: Would you have been better off leaving your money in a bank in the United States or in Cyprus over the last five years?
The answer: You would have been better off in Cyprus, even after the bailout, when your money was “confiscated.” If you had 100,000 euros in a Cypriot bank account over the last five years, where the interest rate has averaged about 5 percent, you would have about 127,600 euros today. Even after the bailout, which would require you to give up 10 percent of your deposit — 12,760 euros — you would be left with 114,840 euros. The American bank? The $100,000 you deposited at Bank of America five years ago is about $105,100, at the going rate of about 1 percent interest a year.
As Cyprus Crisis Deepens, Wealthy Russians Are Ensnared
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Cyprus Rejects Bank Deposit Tax, Scuttling Bailout Deal
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: March 19, 2013
An earlier version of this article misstated the vote totals in Parliament. The vote was 36 against and 19 abstaining, not 36 against and 19 in favor.
Cyprus Bailout Incites Turmoil as Blame Flies
A Russian market in Limassol, Cyprus. Russia was angry it was left out of talks to aid Cyprus, where it has billions in banks. In the end, a bailout deal that was supposed to calm a financial crisis in an economically insignificant Mediterranean nation spread it wider. Word of the plan unnerved markets across Europe, raised fears of bank instability in Spain and Italy and sent pensioners into the streets of the island’s capital, Nicosia, in protest. As markets tumbled and the Cypriot Parliament fell into turmoil, salvos of blame were hurled back and forth across the Continent. Officials scrambled to explain what went wrong and how best to control the damage of what Philip Whyte, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform, called a “completely irrational decision” to make bank depositors liable for part of the bailout. The deal flopped so badly that finance ministers who came up with it shortly before dawn on Saturday were on the phone to each other Monday night talking about ways to revise it. Whatever the outcome, the dispute is a vivid demonstration of why Europe, which until recently was congratulating itself on having weathered the worst of the financial storm, has trouble making decisions with so many different interests represented at the table. Politics, both domestic and international, get in the way of economics and make it difficult for wealthy countries to line up behind a plan to help the smallest ones. The northern European nations have grown so weary of bailouts for their southern neighbors that they were intent on exacting a hefty contribution from their latest supplicant. Germany in particular, with parliamentary elections looming in September, was set on driving a hard bargain. A wild card in this instance were the Russians, who have deposited billions in Cypriot banks, extended a $3.25 billion line of credit to Nicosia in 2011 and were in negotiations to help out Cyprus once again. Cypriot leaders apparently were so concerned with keeping their wealthy offshore Russian customers happy that they pushed their own citizens to pay even more than some of the lenders were demanding. The Russians reacted angrily to a so-called stability tax on deposits in Cyprus, and at being left out of the negotiations. On Monday, Russia’s minister of finance, Anton Siluanov, warned that Russia might not extend the existing credit line because the Europeans had not consulted authorities in Moscow about the deposit levy plan. On Sunday, one Russian official was reported by the Interfax news agency as advising Russians to withdraw funds from Cyprus, saying the banking system was untrustworthy. The all-night discussions began Friday and ran for 10 hours, ending shortly before dawn on Saturday. Cyprus needed to come up with billions of dollars to help cover the costs of the bailout of the country’s financial sector, or its European allies said they would leave it to face the prospect of collapse alone. Each of the major stakeholders, which included the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and euro zone finance ministers, entered the room with a conflicting goal. Protecting the small-time saver was at the top of no one’s list. The result was a compromise solution everyone is now unhappy with, officials say, one that stands to cost ordinary Cypriot depositors 6.75 percent of their savings. The Germans and their northern European allies wanted to exact a maximum contribution from Cyprus to ensure the deal could pass their recalcitrant, bailout-weary parliaments at home. A confidential report by the German foreign intelligence agency, known by its German initials as the B.N.D., was making the rounds, one that painted the island as a haven for money-laundering. The stigma attached to helping the Cypriots — and the political cost in an election year — was rising rapidly. The I.M.F. was dead set on keeping the debt at what its number-crunchers considered a sustainable level. The Cypriots, meanwhile, wanted to spread the pain around. Nicholas Kulish reported from Berlin and Andrew Higgins from Brussels. Reporting was contributed by Andrew E. Kramer and David Herszenhorn in Moscow, Jack Ewing in Frankfurt and Andrew Siddons in Washington.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: March 19, 2013
An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of a contributor. He is Andrew Siddons, not Siddon.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Wall Street Takes Cyprus Issue Seriously
Cyprus Rejects Bank Deposit Tax, Scuttling Bailout Deal
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: March 19, 2013
An earlier version of this article misstated the vote totals in Parliament. The vote was 36 against and 19 abstaining, not 36 against and 19 in favor.
DealBook: Despite Cyprus Woes, European Capital Markets Show Strength
LONDON – Despite the banking crisis in Cyprus, Europe’s capital markets are still open for business.
On Friday, the British insurance firm Esure raised £604 million, or $917 million, in one of the largest initial public offerings so far this year in Europe. The European banks, Santander and KBC, also pocketed a combined $1.5 billion through a 21 percent share sale in Bank Zachodni, a Polish subsidiary.
The successful offerings come despite growing uncertainty about how the stalemate in Cyprus will affect Europe’s sluggish recovery from its debt crisis.
The Continent’s policy makers are still trying to hammer out a deal that will force the small European country to contribute 5.8 billion euros, or $7.6 billion, toward a 10 billion euro bailout package for Cypriot banks.
Some analysts have warned that the resurgent euro zone crisis could knock investors’ appetite for new listings. Before Cyprus flared up, money raised from new European I.P.O.’s in the first quarter of the year was expected to jump by almost 70 percent compared with the same period in 2012, according to statistics from the accounting firm Ernst & Young.
“Conditions have improved significantly for the region,” said Maria Pinelli, the global strategic growth markets leader at Ernst & Young’s. “However, the euro zone’s political and economic difficulties are casting a shadow across the capital markets.”
The British insurer Esure shrugged off the dark clouds on Friday after the firm secured its listing close to the top of its expected price range. Trading in Esure, which provides home and car insurance across Britain, started on Friday, and gave the British company a market capitalization of around £1.2 billion.
It is the latest firm to tap London’s capital markets. On Wednesday, the British property company Countrywide raised £200 million from its I.P.O., while the insurance firm Direct Line, which is part owned by the nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland, raised £787 million from the capital markets in October.
In Poland, Santander of Spain and KBC of Belgium also raised a combined $1.5 billion from selling shares in their Polish unit Bank Zachodni, though the firms were forced to price the sale below Bank Zachodni’s closing price on Thursday.
Despite uncertainty caused by Europe’s financial difficulties, some global markets remain strong, as investors bet on growing demand from consumers in emerging economies. Singapore and Japan accounted for almost two-thirds of the money raised from new offerings in the first quarter of the year.
A consortium led by the European private equity firm CVC Capital Partners took advantage of this sentiment on Friday by raising $1.3 billion from a share sale in Indonesia’s largest department store operator, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
CVC and its partners — a unit of the Indonesian conglomerate Lippo Group and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation – will retain majority control of the Indonesian retailer Matahari, and secured backing from several global investors, including BlackRock and the asset management units of Goldman Sachs.
Neil Gough contributed reporting from Hong Kong.